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Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms : William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 321-322, June.
  2. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus & Edmundson, Bob, 2005. "Forecasting support systems for the incorporation of event information: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 411-423.
  3. Konstantinos Petridis & Nikolaos E. Petridis & Fouad Ben Abdelaziz & Hatem Masri, 2023. "Ranking econometric techniques using geometrical Benefit of Doubt," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 411-430, November.
  4. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Kenneth, 2001. "The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-633.
  5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  6. Dennis Buede, 2009. "Errors associated with simple versus realistic models," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 11-18, March.
  7. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1998. "The impact of information of unknown correctness on the judgmental forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-322, September.
  8. John D. Sterman & Rebecca Henderson & Eric D. Beinhocker & Lee I. Newman, 2007. "Getting Big Too Fast: Strategic Dynamics with Increasing Returns and Bounded Rationality," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 683-696, April.
  9. Emrouznejad, Ali & Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Petridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "A novel ranking procedure for forecasting approaches using Data Envelopment Analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 235-243.
  10. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December.
  11. Sinan Gönül & Dilek Önkal & Paul Goodwin, 2009. "Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 19-37.
  12. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
  13. António Brandão Moniz, 2008. "Assessing scenarios on the future of work," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, November.
  14. Namwoon Kim & Dae Ryun Chang & Allan D. Shocker, 2000. "Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(4), pages 496-512, April.
  15. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
  16. Williams, Dan W. & Miller, Don, 1999. "Level-adjusted exponential smoothing for modeling planned discontinuities1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-289, July.
  17. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. F Caniato & M Kalchschmidt & S Ronchi, 2011. "Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 413-424, March.
  19. Buede, Dennis M. & Mahoney, Suzanne & Ezell, Barry & Lathrop, John, 2012. "Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 77-89.
  20. Philip Hans Franses, 2004. "Do We Think We Make Better Forecasts Than in the Past? A Survey of Academics," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 466-468, December.
  21. António B. Moniz & Margarida R. Paulos, 2008. "Futures of automobile industry and challenges on sustainable development and mobility," IET Working Papers Series 04/2008, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
  22. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Reimers, Stian & Harvey, Nigel, 2011. "Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1196-1214, October.
  24. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
  25. Adya, Monica & Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott & Kennedy, Miles, 2001. "Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 143-157.
  26. Stolzke, U.A. & Müller, R.A.E., 1997. "Neuere Verfahren der Preisprognose aus Sicht des Agrarhandels," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 33.
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