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Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models

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  1. Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro & Oga, Takashi & Kakamu, Kazuhiko, 2010. "Forecasting electricity demand in Japan: A Bayesian spatial autoregressive ARMA approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2721-2735, November.
  2. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhu, Wenjin & Zhang, Wenyu & Sun, Donghuai, 2009. "A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the [epsilon]-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4901-4909, November.
  3. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, Nalin Behari, 2019. "Season specific approach for short-term load forecasting based on hybrid FA-SVM and similarity concept," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 886-896.
  4. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2015. "A clustering approach to domestic electricity load profile characterisation using smart metering data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 190-199.
  5. El-Baz, Wessam & Tzscheutschler, Peter, 2015. "Short-term smart learning electrical load prediction algorithm for home energy management systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 10-19.
  6. Faridpak, Behdad & Farrokhifar, Meisam & Murzakhanov, Ilgiz & Safari, Amin, 2020. "A series multi-step approach for operation Co-optimization of integrated power and natural gas systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
  7. Cabral, Joilson de Assis & Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro & Freitas Cabral, Maria Viviana de, 2017. "Electricity consumption forecasting in Brazil: A spatial econometrics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 124-131.
  8. Zhang, Qi & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2012. "Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 376-385.
  9. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
  10. Yangrui Zhang & Peng Tao & Xiangming Wu & Chenguang Yang & Guang Han & Hui Zhou & Yinlong Hu, 2022. "Hourly Electricity Price Prediction for Electricity Market with High Proportion of Wind and Solar Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, February.
  11. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul, 2018. "Performance Analysis of Short-Term Electricity Demand with Atmospheric Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, April.
  12. Yuehjen E. Shao & Yi-Shan Tsai, 2018. "Electricity Sales Forecasting Using Hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Soft Computing Approaches in the Absence of Explanatory Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
  13. Zang, Haixiang & Xu, Ruiqi & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Liu, Ling & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2021. "Residential load forecasting based on LSTM fusing self-attention mechanism with pooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  14. Pao, H.T., 2009. "Forecasting energy consumption in Taiwan using hybrid nonlinear models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1438-1446.
  15. Xu, Lei & Hou, Lei & Zhu, Zhenyu & Li, Yu & Liu, Jiaquan & Lei, Ting & Wu, Xingguang, 2021. "Mid-term prediction of electrical energy consumption for crude oil pipelines using a hybrid algorithm of support vector machine and genetic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  16. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao, 2011. "Modeling CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion using the logistic equation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3355-3359.
  17. Karin Kandananond, 2011. "Forecasting Electricity Demand in Thailand with an Artificial Neural Network Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(8), pages 1-12, August.
  18. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 776-788.
  19. Afshar, K. & Bigdeli, N., 2011. "Data analysis and short term load forecasting in Iran electricity market using singular spectral analysis (SSA)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2620-2627.
  20. Wang, Jianzhou & Jia, Ruiling & Zhao, Weigang & Wu, Jie & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of the largest Lyapunov exponent and non-linear fractal extrapolation algorithm to short-term load forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1277-1287.
  21. Dutta, Rohan & Ghosh, Parthasarathi & Chowdhury, Kanchan, 2011. "Customization and validation of a commercial process simulator for dynamic simulation of Helium liquefier," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3204-3214.
  22. Anca Mehedintu & Mihaela Sterpu & Georgeta Soava, 2018. "Estimation and Forecasts for the Share of Renewable Energy Consumption in Final Energy Consumption by 2020 in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, May.
  23. Ruhang, Xu, 2020. "Efficient clustering for aggregate loads: An unsupervised pretraining based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  24. Tang, Lei & Wang, Xifan & Wang, Xiuli & Shao, Chengcheng & Liu, Shiyu & Tian, Shijun, 2019. "Long-term electricity consumption forecasting based on expert prediction and fuzzy Bayesian theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1144-1154.
  25. Mihaela Simionescu & Carmen Beatrice Păuna & Tiberiu Diaconescu, 2020. "Renewable Energy and Economic Performance in the Context of the European Green Deal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, December.
  26. Pin Li & Jin-Suo Zhang, 2018. "A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-28, June.
  27. Mihaela Simionescu & Yuriy Bilan & Emília Krajňáková & Dalia Streimikiene & Stanisław Gędek, 2019. "Renewable Energy in the Electricity Sector and GDP per Capita in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-15, June.
  28. Assareh, E. & Behrang, M.A. & Assari, M.R. & Ghanbarzadeh, A., 2010. "Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5223-5229.
  29. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
  30. Alvarado-Barrios, Lázaro & Rodríguez del Nozal, Álvaro & Boza Valerino, Juan & García Vera, Ignacio & Martínez-Ramos, Jose L., 2020. "Stochastic unit commitment in microgrids: Influence of the load forecasting error and the availability of energy storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2060-2069.
  31. Pinheiro, Marco G. & Madeira, Sara C. & Francisco, Alexandre P., 2023. "Short-term electricity load forecasting—A systematic approach from system level to secondary substations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
  32. Zhang, Wenbin & Tian, Lixin & Wang, Minggang & Zhen, Zaili & Fang, Guochang, 2016. "The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 344-359.
  33. Ding, Jia & Zhao, Yuxuan & Jin, Junyang, 2023. "Forecasting natural gas consumption with multiple seasonal patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
  34. Cai, Yuan & Wang, Jian-zhou & Tang, Yun & Yang, Yu-chen, 2011. "An efficient approach for electric load forecasting using distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) & HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network) neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1340-1350.
  35. Sébastien Bissey & Sébastien Jacques & Jean-Charles Le Bunetel, 2017. "The Fuzzy Logic Method to Efficiently Optimize Electricity Consumption in Individual Housing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, October.
  36. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2009. "Forecast of electricity consumption and economic growth in Taiwan by state space modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1779-1791.
  37. Alagoz, B.B. & Kaygusuz, A. & Karabiber, A., 2012. "A user-mode distributed energy management architecture for smart grid applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 167-177.
  38. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
  39. Federico Scarpa & Vincenzo Bianco, 2017. "Assessing the Quality of Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting: An Application to the Italian Residential Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
  40. Lozinskaia, Agata & Redkina, Anastasiia & Shenkman, Evgeniia, 2020. "Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 5-25.
  41. Zhang, Guoqiang & Guo, Jifeng, 2020. "A novel ensemble method for hourly residential electricity consumption forecasting by imaging time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  42. Mihaela Simionescu & Wadim Strielkowski & Manuela Tvaronavičienė, 2020. "Renewable Energy in Final Energy Consumption and Income in the EU-28 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
  43. Yi Liang & Dongxiao Niu & Minquan Ye & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2016. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Wavelet Transform and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Improved Cuckoo Search," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
  44. Li, Jinchao & Wu, Qianqian & Tian, Yu & Fan, Liguo, 2021. "Monthly Henry Hub natural gas spot prices forecasting using variational mode decomposition and deep belief network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  45. Shakouri, Mahmoud & Lee, Hyun Woo & Kim, Yong-Woo, 2017. "A probabilistic portfolio-based model for financial valuation of community solar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 709-726.
  46. Popescu, Daniela & Ungureanu, Florina & Hernández-Guerrero, Abel, 2009. "Simulation models for the analysis of space heat consumption of buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1447-1453.
  47. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Ghalambaz, M. & Assari, M.R. & Noghrehabadi, A.R., 2011. "Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5649-5654.
  48. Shuyu Li & Rongrong Li, 2017. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in Shandong, China Using the ARIMA Model, GM Model, and ARIMA-GM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, July.
  49. Zhang, Wen Yu & Hong, Wei-Chiang & Dong, Yucheng & Tsai, Gary & Sung, Jing-Tian & Fan, Guo-feng, 2012. "Application of SVR with chaotic GASA algorithm in cyclic electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 850-858.
  50. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2013. "Evaluation of time series techniques to characterise domestic electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 120-130.
  51. Kasun Chandrarathna & Arman Edalati & AhmadReza Fourozan tabar, 2020. "Forecasting Short-term load using Econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution," Papers 2009.13595, arXiv.org.
  52. Manogaran Madhiarasan & Mohamed Louzazni, 2021. "Different Forecasting Horizons Based Performance Analysis of Electricity Load Forecasting Using Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-35, November.
  53. Basetti, Vedik & Chandel, Ashwani K. & Chandel, Rajeevan, 2016. "Power system dynamic state estimation using prediction based evolutionary technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 29-47.
  54. Yi Liang & Dongxiao Niu & Ye Cao & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2016. "Analysis and Modeling for China’s Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Hybrid Method Based on Multiple Regression and Extreme Learning Machine: A View from Carbon Emission," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-22, November.
  55. Haicheng Ling & Pierre-Yves Massé & Thibault Rihet & Frédéric Wurtz, 2023. "Realistic Nudging through ICT Pipelines to Help Improve Energy Self-Consumption for Management in Energy Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-24, July.
  56. Ivana Kiprijanovska & Simon Stankoski & Igor Ilievski & Slobodan Jovanovski & Matjaž Gams & Hristijan Gjoreski, 2020. "HousEEC: Day-Ahead Household Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting Using Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, May.
  57. Terlouw, Tom & AlSkaif, Tarek & Bauer, Christian & van Sark, Wilfried, 2019. "Multi-objective optimization of energy arbitrage in community energy storage systems using different battery technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 356-372.
  58. Angelopoulos, Dimitrios & Siskos, Yannis & Psarras, John, 2019. "Disaggregating time series on multiple criteria for robust forecasting: The case of long-term electricity demand in Greece," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 252-265.
  59. Akdi, Yılmaz & Gölveren, Elif & Okkaoğlu, Yasin, 2020. "Daily electrical energy consumption: Periodicity, harmonic regression method and forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
  60. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  61. Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa & Blumsack, Seth & Kleit, Andrew, 2015. "Estimating zonal electricity supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 10-19.
  62. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Mehdi Ganjkhani & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Computational Intelligence on Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Methodological Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
  63. Cao, Guohua & Wu, Lijuan, 2016. "Support vector regression with fruit fly optimization algorithm for seasonal electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 734-745.
  64. Rubasinghe, Osaka & Zhang, Tingze & Zhang, Xinan & Choi, San Shing & Chau, Tat Kei & Chow, Yau & Fernando, Tyrone & Iu, Herbert Ho-Ching, 2023. "Highly accurate peak and valley prediction short-term net load forecasting approach based on decomposition for power systems with high PV penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
  65. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
  66. Kharrati, Saeed & Kazemi, Mostafa & Ehsan, Mehdi, 2016. "Equilibria in the competitive retail electricity market considering uncertainty and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 315-328.
  67. Zahedi, Gholamreza & Azizi, Saeed & Bahadori, Alireza & Elkamel, Ali & Wan Alwi, Sharifah R., 2013. "Electricity demand estimation using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy network: A case study from the Ontario province – Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 323-328.
  68. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Anargyros Dramountanis & Panagiotis G. Papaioannou, 2016. "Analysis and Modeling for Short- to Medium-Term Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Manifold Learning Principal Component Model and Comparison with Classical Statistical Models (SARIMAX, Exponential Smoot," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-40, August.
  69. Lalitpat Aswanuwath & Warut Pannakkong & Jirachai Buddhakulsomsiri & Jessada Karnjana & Van-Nam Huynh, 2023. "A Hybrid Model of VMD-EMD-FFT, Similar Days Selection Method, Stepwise Regression, and Artificial Neural Network for Daily Electricity Peak Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-24, February.
  70. Kaytez, Fazil, 2020. "A hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average and least-square support vector machine for long-term forecasting of net electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
  71. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet, 2017. "Forecasting long-term global solar radiation with an ANN algorithm coupled with satellite-derived (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) for regional locations in Queensland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 828-848.
  72. Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P. & Bouzerdoum, A., 2017. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using autoregressive based time varying model incorporating representative data adjustment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 790-801.
  73. Kracík, Jiří & Lavička, Hynek, 2016. "Fluctuation analysis of high frequency electric power load in the Czech Republic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 951-961.
  74. Powell, Kody M. & Sriprasad, Akshay & Cole, Wesley J. & Edgar, Thomas F., 2014. "Heating, cooling, and electrical load forecasting for a large-scale district energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 877-885.
  75. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li & Niu, Dongxiao & Tan, Zhongfu, 2012. "An annual load forecasting model based on support vector regression with differential evolution algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-70.
  76. Rae-Jun Park & Kyung-Bin Song & Bo-Sung Kwon, 2020. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Algorithm Using a Similar Day Selection Method Based on Reinforcement Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, May.
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