IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i4p919-d1591347.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Day-Ahead Electricity Price Prediction and Error Correction Method Based on Feature Construction–Singular Spectrum Analysis–Long Short-Term Memory

Author

Listed:
  • Yuzhe Jiang

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

  • Weiqing Sun

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract

Conducting electricity price prediction research has significance for the operation of the generation and transmission sides, and can guide the planning of electricity consumption. In order to further improve prediction accuracy, this paper constructs new feature based on publicly available market data, and uses feature filtering to find the feature data with the highest correlation with electricity prices in publicly available market data as input features. A model combining feature construction (FC), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and LSTM is used for electricity price prediction. Compared with traditional LSTM models, this model reduced the MAE by 10.0, MAPE by 16.4%, and RMSE by 19.7 in the test set. This paper also proposes an error correction method for recursive prediction based on the error distribution in training and testing sets to reduce the influence of accumulated errors. The results show that the MAPE decreased by 6.1% in recursive prediction, proving that the model has good performance in prediction. By accurately predicting electricity prices and analyzing possible error ranges, the prediction method proposed in this article can better guide market participants in making decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuzhe Jiang & Weiqing Sun, 2025. "Day-Ahead Electricity Price Prediction and Error Correction Method Based on Feature Construction–Singular Spectrum Analysis–Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-22, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:4:p:919-:d:1591347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/4/919/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/4/919/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sulandari, Winita & Subanar, & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam & Rodrigues, Paulo Canas, 2020. "Indonesian electricity load forecasting using singular spectrum analysis, fuzzy systems and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Heidarpanah, Mohammadreza & Hooshyaripor, Farhad & Fazeli, Meysam, 2023. "Daily electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence models in the Iranian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    3. Ruan, Zhang & Huang, Lianzhong & Wang, Kai & Ma, Ranqi & Wang, Zhongyi & Zhang, Rui & Zhao, Haoyang & Wang, Cong, 2024. "A novel prediction method of fuel consumption for wing-diesel hybrid vessels based on feature construction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    4. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Incorporating air temperature into mid-term electricity load forecasting models using time-series regressions and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    5. Li, Wei & Becker, Denis Mike, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Cao, Wangbin & Wang, Guangxing & Liang, Xiaolin & Hu, Zhengwei, 2024. "A STAM-LSTM model for wind power prediction with feature selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    7. Sareen, Karan & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan & Shikhola, Tushar & Sharma, Rajneesh, 2023. "An imputation and decomposition algorithms based integrated approach with bidirectional LSTM neural network for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    8. Duan, Jikai & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Duan, Jizheng & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Bolong, 2021. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using recurrent neural networks with error correction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Pappas, S.Sp. & Ekonomou, L. & Karamousantas, D.Ch. & Chatzarakis, G.E. & Katsikas, S.K. & Liatsis, P., 2008. "Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1353-1360.
    10. Jebli, Imane & Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra & Kabbaj, Mohammed Issam & Tilioua, Amine, 2021. "Prediction of solar energy guided by pearson correlation using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling, 2015. "Electricity price forecasting with a BED (Bivariate EMD Denoising) methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 601-609.
    12. Pan, Wenchao & Guo, Zhichen & Zhang, Jiayan Shi Yaxuan & Luo, Lingle, 2024. "Forecasting of coal and electricity prices in China: Evidence from the quantum bee colony-support vector regression neural network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Zhao, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yao & Yang, Yujia & Yuan, Shuguang, 2022. "Load forecasting via Grey Model-Least Squares Support Vector Machine model and spatial-temporal distribution of electric consumption intensity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    14. Gabrielli, Paolo & Wüthrich, Moritz & Blume, Steffen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    15. Dong, Zibo & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2013. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting using exponential smoothing state space model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1104-1113.
    16. Wang, Huaqing & Tan, Zhongfu & Liang, Yan & Li, Fanqi & Zhang, Zheyu & Ju, Liwei, 2024. "A novel multi-layer stacking ensemble wind power prediction model under Tensorflow deep learning framework considering feature enhancement and data hierarchy processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    17. Xiong, Xiaoping & Qing, Guohua, 2023. "A hybrid day-ahead electricity price forecasting framework based on time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    18. Wei Li & Denis Mike Becker, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Papers 2101.05249, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Two-step deep learning framework with error compensation technique for short-term, half-hourly electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    2. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Aliyon, Kasra & Ritvanen, Jouni, 2024. "Deep learning-based electricity price forecasting: Findings on price predictability and European electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    4. Xiong, Xiaoping & Qing, Guohua, 2023. "A hybrid day-ahead electricity price forecasting framework based on time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    5. Deniz Kenan Kılıç & Peter Nielsen & Amila Thibbotuwawa, 2024. "Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting via LSTM and Trading Strategy for the Power Market: A Case Study of the West Denmark DK1 Grid Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Meng, Anbo & Zhu, Jianbin & Yan, Baiping & Yin, Hao, 2024. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction in multi-price zones based on multi-view fusion spatio-temporal graph neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    7. Adela Bâra & Simona-Vasilica Oprea & Bogdan George Tudorică, 2024. "From the East-European Regional Day-Ahead Markets to a Global Electricity Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(6), pages 2525-2557, June.
    8. Wang, Jun & Cao, Junxing, 2024. "Reservoir properties inversion using attention-based parallel hybrid network integrating feature selection and transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    10. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    11. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Dounia El Bourakadi & Hiba Ramadan & Ali Yahyaouy & Jaouad Boumhidi, 2023. "A robust energy management approach in two-steps ahead using deep learning BiLSTM prediction model and type-2 fuzzy decision-making controller," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 645-667, December.
    13. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
    14. Zhang, Wenbin & Tian, Lixin & Wang, Minggang & Zhen, Zaili & Fang, Guochang, 2016. "The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 344-359.
    15. Souhir Ben Amor & Thomas Mobius & Felix Musgens, 2024. "Bridging an energy system model with an ensemble deep-learning approach for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2411.04880, arXiv.org.
    16. Gonçalves, Rui & Ribeiro, Vitor Miguel & Pereira, Fernando Lobo, 2023. "Variable Split Convolutional Attention: A novel Deep Learning model applied to the household electric power consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    17. Xu, Lei & Hou, Lei & Zhu, Zhenyu & Li, Yu & Liu, Jiaquan & Lei, Ting & Wu, Xingguang, 2021. "Mid-term prediction of electrical energy consumption for crude oil pipelines using a hybrid algorithm of support vector machine and genetic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    18. Ehsani, Behdad & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Charlin, Laurent, 2024. "Price forecasting in the Ontario electricity market via TriConvGRU hybrid model: Univariate vs. multivariate frameworks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    19. Sharma, Abhishek & Jain, Sachin Kumar, 2022. "A novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    20. Kılıç Depren, Serpil & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Depren, Özer, 2022. "The role of data frequency and method selection in electricity price estimation: Comparative evidence from Turkey in pre-pandemic and pandemic periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 217-225.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:4:p:919-:d:1591347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.