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Interval forecasting : An analysis based upon ARCH-quantile estimators

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  2. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
  3. Ross Askanazi & Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2018. "On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 953-965, November.
  4. Cai, Zongwu & Xu, Xiaoping, 2009. "Nonparametric Quantile Estimations for Dynamic Smooth Coefficient Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 371-383.
  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
  6. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2003. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
  7. Reeves, Jonathan J., 2005. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for ARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-248.
  8. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011. "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
  9. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
  10. Delgado, Miguel A. & Domínguez, Manuel A., 1997. "Consistent specification testing of quantile regression models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6211, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  11. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 729-750, September.
  12. de Menezes, Lilian M. & W. Bunn, Derek & Taylor, James W., 2000. "Review of guidelines for the use of combined forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 190-204, January.
  13. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
  14. Chollete, Lorán, 2009. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes," Discussion Papers 2008/25, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  16. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  17. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "Dynamic quantile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-205, November.
  18. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  19. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2019. "Does a financial accelerator improve forecasts during financial crises? Evidence from Japan with prediction-pooling methods," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 45-68.
  20. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
  21. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  22. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  23. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
  24. Taylor, James W. & Buizza, Roberto, 2003. "Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 57-70.
  25. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Value at Risk by Quantile Regression," NBER Working Papers 7341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. James Taylor & Derek Bunn, 1998. "Combining forecast quantiles using quantile regression: Investigating the derived weights, estimator bias and imposing constraints," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 193-206.
  27. Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Some possible directions for future research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-3.
  28. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  29. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
  30. Chollete, Lorán, 2008. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes: An Application to Subprime Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers 2008/2, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  31. Zongwu Cai & Chaoqun Ma & Xianhua Mi, 2020. "Realized Volatility Forecasting Based on Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202016, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2020.
  32. Arunraj, Nari Sivanandam & Ahrens, Diane, 2015. "A hybrid seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and quantile regression for daily food sales forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 321-335.
  33. Fabio Busetti, 2017. "Quantile Aggregation of Density Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 495-512, August.
  34. George Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Conditional autoregressive valu at risk by regression quantile: Estimatingmarket risk for major stock markets," Working Papers 0521, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  35. Qian, Wei & Rolling, Craig A. & Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2022. "Combining forecasts for universally optimal performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 193-208.
  36. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 397-407.
  37. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  38. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
  39. Ewa Ratuszny, 2015. "Risk Modeling of Commodities using CAViaR Models, the Encompassing Method and the Combined Forecasts," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 129-156.
  40. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  41. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  42. Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003. "Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456.
  43. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  44. Fries, Christian P. & Nigbur, Tobias & Seeger, Norman, 2017. "Displaced relative changes in historical simulation: Application to risk measures of interest rates with phases of negative rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-198.
  45. Li, Yushu & Andersson, Jonas, 2014. "A Likelihood Ratio and Markov Chain Based Method to Evaluate Density Forecasting," Discussion Papers 2014/12, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  46. Roberto Buizza & James W. Taylor, 2004. "A comparison of temperature density forecasts from GARCH and atmospheric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 337-355.
  47. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 791-803, September.
  48. Taylor, James W., 2020. "Forecast combinations for value at risk and expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 428-441.
  49. Yushu Li & Jonas Andersson, 2020. "A likelihood ratio and Markov chain‐based method to evaluate density forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 47-55, January.
  50. Araújo Santos, P. & Fraga Alves, M.I., 2012. "A new class of independence tests for interval forecasts evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3366-3380.
  51. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "A Test for Comparing Multiple Misspecified Conditional Distributions," Departmental Working Papers 200314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  52. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
  53. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  54. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  55. J D Bermúdez & J V Segura & E Vercher, 2010. "Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(1), pages 164-171, January.
  56. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2014. "A new quantile regression forecasting model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 779-784.
  57. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.
  58. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 961-994, Elsevier.
  59. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2003. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
  60. Taylor, James W. & Buizza, Roberto, 2006. "Density forecasting for weather derivative pricing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 29-42.
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