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Dynamic quantile models

  • Gourieroux, C.
  • Jasiak, J.

This paper introduces the Dynamic Additive Quantile (DAQ) model that ensures the monotonicity of conditional quantile estimates. The DAQ model is easily estimable and can be used for computation and updating of the Value-at-Risk. An asymptotically efficient estimator of the DAQ is obtained by maximizing an objective function based on the inverse KLIC measure. An alternative estimator proposed in the paper is the Method of L-Moments estimator (MLM). The MLM estimator is consistent, but generally not fully efficient. Goodness-of-fit tests and diagnostic tools for the assessment of the model are also provided. For illustration, the DAQ model is estimated from a series of returns on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) market index.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 147 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Pages: 198-205

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:1:p:198-205
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Szroeter, Jerzy, 1983. "Generalized Wald Methods for Testing Nonlinear Implicit and Overidentifying Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 335-53, March.
  2. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gourieroux & Eric Renault, 2005. "Efficient Derivative Pricing by Extended Method of Moments," Working Papers 2005-40, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
  4. Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 793-813, December.
  5. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2003. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 571, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
  8. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Uniform Convergence Rates For Kernel Estimation With Dependent Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 726-748, June.
  10. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Models Using Least Absolute Error Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 46-68, March.
  11. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Renault Eric, 1987. "Consistent m-estimators in a semi-parametric model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8720, CEPREMAP.
  12. Ghoudi, Kilani & Kulperger, Reg J. & Rémillard, Bruno, 2001. "A Nonparametric Test of Serial Independence for Time Series and Residuals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 191-218, November.
  13. Karvanen, Juha, 2006. "Estimation of quantile mixtures via L-moments and trimmed L-moments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 947-959, November.
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  15. Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Conditional Quantiles," Working Papers 1139, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  16. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
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  20. Portnoy, Stephen, 1991. "Asymptotic behavior of regression quantiles in non-stationary, dependent cases," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-113, July.
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  23. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
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