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Dynamic Quantile Models

  • Joan Jasiak

    ()

    (Department of Economics, York University)

  • C. Gourieroux

    (CREST, CEPREMAP, University of Toronto)

This paper introduces new dynamic quantile models called the Dynamic Additive Quantile (DAQ) model and Quantile Factor Model (QFM) for univariate time series and panel data, respectively. The Dynamic Additive Quantile (DAQ) model is suitable for applications to financial data such as univariate returns, and can be used for computation and updating of the Value-at-Risk. The Quantile Factor Mode (QFM) is a multivariate model that can represent the dynamics of cross-sectional distributions of returns, individual incomes, and corporate ratings. The estimation method proposed in the paper relies on an optimization criterion based on the inverse KLIC measure. Goodness of fit tests and diagnostic tools for fit assessment are also provided. For illustration, the models are estimated on stock return data form the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).

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File URL: http://dept.econ.yorku.ca/research/workingPapers/working_papers/2006/QUANT.pdf
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Paper provided by York University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006_4.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yca:wpaper:2006_4
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  1. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
  2. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gourieroux & Eric Renault, 2005. "Efficient Derivative Pricing by Extended Method of Moments," Working Papers 2005-40, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Conditional Quantiles," Working Papers 1139, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521845731 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  6. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Models Using Least Absolute Error Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 46-68, March.
  7. Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2003. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 571, Boston College Department of Economics.
  8. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  9. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  10. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
  11. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  12. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
  13. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
  14. Granger, C. W. J. & White, Halbert & Kamstra, Mark, 1989. "Interval forecasting : An analysis based upon ARCH-quantile estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 87-96, January.
  15. Szroeter, Jerzy, 1983. "Generalized Wald Methods for Testing Nonlinear Implicit and Overidentifying Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 335-53, March.
  16. Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 793-813, December.
  17. Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2003. "Asymptotic Efficiency in Parametric Structural Models with Parameter-Dependent Support," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1307-1338, 09.
  18. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Renault Eric, 1987. "Consistent m-estimators in a semi-parametric model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8720, CEPREMAP.
  19. Karvanen, Juha, 2006. "Estimation of quantile mixtures via L-moments and trimmed L-moments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 947-959, November.
  20. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521608275 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Portnoy, Stephen, 1991. "Asymptotic behavior of regression quantiles in non-stationary, dependent cases," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-113, July.
  22. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Uniform Convergence Rates For Kernel Estimation With Dependent Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 726-748, June.
  23. Elamir, Elsayed A. H. & Seheult, Allan H., 2003. "Trimmed L-moments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 299-314, July.
  24. Ghoudi, Kilani & Kulperger, Reg J. & Rémillard, Bruno, 2001. "A Nonparametric Test of Serial Independence for Time Series and Residuals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 191-218, November.
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