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How well do economists forecast recessions?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Ines Fortin & Sebastian P. Koch & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 107-137, January.
  2. Jorge Abad & Javier Suarez, 2018. "The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions," Working Papers wp2018_1806, CEMFI.
  3. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
  4. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2026. "Switching Macroeconomic Growth and Volatility: Evidence from a Mean-Variance Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
  5. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.
  6. Petr Polak & Jiri Panos, 2019. "The Impact of Expectations on IFRS 9 Loan Loss Provisions," Research and Policy Notes 2019/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  7. An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  8. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
  9. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  10. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
  11. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
  12. Gatti, Roberta & Lederman, Daniel & Islam, Asif M. & Nguyen, Ha & Lotfi, Rana & Emam Mousa, Mennatallah, 2024. "Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  13. Guénette, Justin Damien & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "Is a Global Recession Imminent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Filip Bašić & Tomislav Globan, 2023. "Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 2120040-212, December.
  15. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  16. Kollar, Miroslav & Schmieder, Christian, 2019. "Macro-based asset allocation: An empirical analysis," EIB Working Papers 2019/11, European Investment Bank (EIB).
  17. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
  18. Antoine Gaudin & Brendan Harnoys Vannier & Martin Kessler, 2024. "A Critical Analysis of DSA Projections," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 67(3), pages 233-247, December.
  19. Rybacki, Jakub & Gniazdowski, Michał, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak," MPRA Paper 107682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Philip Hans Franses, 2024. "Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), December.
  21. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.
  22. Aktuğ, Emrehan & Rezghi, Abolfazl, 2025. "Asymmetric overreaction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  23. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
  24. Michael Walton, 2023. "Adaptive Evaluation: A Complexity-Based Approach to Systematic Learning for Innovation and Scaling in Development," CID Working Papers 428, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  25. An, Zidong & Liu, Dingqian & Wu, Yuzheng, 2021. "Expectation formation following pandemic events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  26. Tim Köhler, 2025. "Do the Sentiments of Forecasters Help Predict Recessions? Evidence from Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 21(2), pages 185-212, December.
  27. Metodij Hadzi‐Vaskov & Luca Antonio Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2023. "What drives economic growth forecast revisions?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1068-1092, August.
  28. Mihail Yanchev, 2022. "Deep Growth-at-Risk Model: Nowcasting the 2020 Pandemic Lockdown Recession in Small Open Economies," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 20-41.
  29. Ulrich Fritsche & Johannes Puckelwald, 2018. "Deciphering Professional Forecasters’ Stories - Analyzing a Corpus of Textual Predictions for the German Economy," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201804, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  30. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
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