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Entry and Shakeout in Dynamic Oligopoly

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  • Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp
  • Hünermund, Paul
  • Takahashi, Yuya

Abstract

In many industries, the number of firms evolves non-monotonically over time. A phase of rapid entry is followed by an industry shakeout: a large number of firms exit within a short period. We present a simple timing game of entry and exit with an exogenous technological process governing firm effi- ciency. We calibrate our model to data from the post World War II penicillin industry. The equilibrium dynamics of the calibrated model closely match the patterns observed in many industries. In particular, our model gener- ates richer and more realistic dynamics than competitive models previously analyzed. The entry phase is characterized by preemption motives while the shakeout phase mimics a war of attrition. We show that dynamic strategic incentives accelerate early entry and trigger the shakeout by comparing a Markov Perfect Equilibrium to an Open-loop Equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp & Hünermund, Paul & Takahashi, Yuya, 2015. "Entry and Shakeout in Dynamic Oligopoly," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112865, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112865
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1994. "Computing Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria: Numerical Implications of a Dynamic Differentiated Product Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 555-589, Winter.
    2. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-583, June.
    3. Gowrisankaran, Gautam, 1999. "Efficient representation of state spaces for some dynamic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1077-1098, August.
    4. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
    5. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L, 1997. "Technological Extinctions of Industrial Firms: An Inquiry into Their Nature and Causes," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 379-460, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuru Igami, 2018. "Industry Dynamics of Offshoring: The Case of Hard Disk Drives," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 67-101, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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