IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc15/112865.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Entry and Shakeout in Dynamic Oligopoly

Author

Listed:
  • Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp
  • Hünermund, Paul
  • Takahashi, Yuya

Abstract

In many industries, the number of firms evolves non-monotonically over time. A phase of rapid entry is followed by an industry shakeout: a large number of firms exit within a short period. We present a simple timing game of entry and exit with an exogenous technological process governing firm effi- ciency. We calibrate our model to data from the post World War II penicillin industry. The equilibrium dynamics of the calibrated model closely match the patterns observed in many industries. In particular, our model gener- ates richer and more realistic dynamics than competitive models previously analyzed. The entry phase is characterized by preemption motives while the shakeout phase mimics a war of attrition. We show that dynamic strategic incentives accelerate early entry and trigger the shakeout by comparing a Markov Perfect Equilibrium to an Open-loop Equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp & Hünermund, Paul & Takahashi, Yuya, 2015. "Entry and Shakeout in Dynamic Oligopoly," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112865, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112865
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/112865/1/VfS_2015_pid_708.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1994. "Computing Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria: Numerical Implications of a Dynamic Differentiated Product Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 555-589, Winter.
    2. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-583, June.
    3. Gowrisankaran, Gautam, 1999. "Efficient representation of state spaces for some dynamic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1077-1098, August.
    4. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
    5. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L, 1997. "Technological Extinctions of Industrial Firms: An Inquiry into Their Nature and Causes," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 379-460, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuru Igami, 2018. "Industry Dynamics of Offshoring: The Case of Hard Disk Drives," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 67-101, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guido Buenstorf, 2007. "Evolution on the Shoulders of Giants: Entrepreneurship and Firm Survival in the German Laser Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 30(3), pages 179-202, May.
    2. Hanazono, Makoto & Yang, Huanxing, 2009. "Dynamic entry and exit with uncertain cost positions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 474-487, May.
    3. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L., 2005. "Industry shakeouts and technological change," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 23-43, February.
    4. Geroski, P. A. & Mazzucato, M., 2001. "Modelling the dynamics of industry populations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1003-1022, July.
    5. Viktoria Kocsis & Victoria Shestalova & Henry van der Wiel & Nick Zubanov & Ruslan Lukach & Bert Minne, 2009. "Relation entry, exit and productivity: an overview of recent theoretical and empirical literature," CPB Document 180.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Soete, Luc & Verspagen, Bart & ter Weel, Bas, 2010. "Systems of Innovation," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1159-1180, Elsevier.
    7. Rajshree Agarwal & Barry L. Bayus, 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1024-1041, August.
    8. Steven Klepper & Sally Sleeper, 2005. "Entry by Spinoffs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(8), pages 1291-1306, August.
    9. Brett Hollenbeck, 2020. "Horizontal mergers and innovation in concentrated industries," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, March.
    10. Murmann, Johann Peter & Frenken, Koen, 2006. "Toward a systematic framework for research on dominant designs, technological innovations, and industrial change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 925-952, September.
    11. Dijk van, M., 2003. "Industry Evolution in Developing Countries: the Indonesian Pulp and Paper Industry," Working Papers 03.02, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
    12. Murata, Yasusada, 2007. "Taste heterogeneity and the scale of production: Fragmentation, unification, and segmentation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 135-160, July.
    13. Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2010. "Stylised facts and other empirical evidence on firm dynamics, business cycle and growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 73-80, June.
    14. Silviano Esteve-Pérez, 2012. "Consolidation by merger: the UK beer market," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 207-229, July.
    15. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 78-105, January.
    16. Andrea Bonaccorsi & Paola Giuri, 2000. "Industry Life Cycle and the Evolution of an Industry Network," LEM Papers Series 2000/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Norman George & Pepall Lynne & Richards Daniel J, 2008. "Entrepreneurial First Movers, Brand-Name Fast Seconds, and the Evolution of Market Structure," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, October.
    18. Klette, Tor Jakob & Griliches, Zvi, 2000. "Empirical Patterns of Firm Growth and R&D Investment: A Quality Ladder Model Interpretation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 363-387, April.
    19. Guido Buenstorf, 2016. "Schumpeterian incumbents and industry evolution," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 823-836, October.
    20. John Sutton, 1996. "Gibrats Legacy," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 14, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112865. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.