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Prospect theory and psychological factors in football: Effects of the video assistant referee on penalty conversion rates in the German Bundesliga

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  • Böttger, Tom
  • Vischer, Lars

Abstract

The increasing integration of technological aids, such as the video assistant referee (VAR), is fundamentally transforming decision-making processes in professional football, especially influencing critical match moments. Penalty kicks, characterised by technical simplicity but intense psychological pressure, may be particularly affected by delays caused by VAR reviews. An analysis of 737 penalty kicks in the German Bundesliga and second Bundesliga (2019-2023) reveals that penalties confirmed following VAR interventions show significantly lower conversion rates. This impact is especially pronounced during the early stages of matches, suggesting prolonged delays disrupt players' established pre-performance routines and heighten psychological stress, which aligns with prospect theory's insights on decision-making under uncertainty. Thus, these insights emphasise how technological innovations enhance officiating accuracy and introduce new psychological demands on athletes at the same time.

Suggested Citation

  • Böttger, Tom & Vischer, Lars, 2025. "Prospect theory and psychological factors in football: Effects of the video assistant referee on penalty conversion rates in the German Bundesliga," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 4/2025, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:umiodp:316433
    DOI: 10.17879/73948675370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P.-A. Chiappori, 2002. "Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1138-1151, September.
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    3. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    4. Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2003. "Professionals Play Minimax," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 395-415.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bias; Football; Penalty; Rule; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies

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