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An empirical evaluation of macroeconomic surveillance in the European Union

Author

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Plödt, Martin
  • Schwarzmüller, Tim

Abstract

The EU's macroeconomic surveillance mechanism, namely the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), is based on the so-called Scoreboard, which comprises a set of indicators that serve as a signalling device for potentially harmful macroeconomic developments. We first evaluate the early warning properties of the Scoreboard indicators with regard to financial crises. We then analyze the role of emerging crisis signals from the Scoreboard for the subsequent steps of the MIP (In-Depth Reviews), in which the gravity of imbalances and policy recommendations are specified. The results of our study help to identify ways to improve the current set-up and ultimately to deliver more transparent and effective policy advice.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "An empirical evaluation of macroeconomic surveillance in the European Union," Kiel Working Papers 2014, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Ostrihoň, Filip, 2022. "Exploring macroeconomic imbalances through EU Alert Mechanism Reports," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2015 - Aufschwung gewinnt wieder an Fahrt [German Economy Winter 2015 - The German economy is regaining momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Krzysztof Biegun & Jacek Karwowski & Piotr Luty, 2021. "How Effective is Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in Predicting Negative Macroeconomic Phenomena?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 822-837.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure; early warning indicators; signals approach; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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