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Europa ohne die USA verteidigen: eine erste Analyse, was gebraucht wird
[Defending Europe without the US: First estimates of what is needed]

Author

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  • Burilkov, Alexandr
  • Wolff, Guntram B.

Abstract

Wir liefern erste Schätzungen über die zusätzlichen Waffen und Truppen, die Europa zur Selbstverteidigung benötigen würde, falls sich die USA aus Europa zurückziehen. Die russische Militärproduktion wurde hochgefahren: Es wurden schätzungsweise 1.550 Panzer, 5.700 gepanzerte Fahrzeuge und 450 Artilleriegeschütze produziert oder instand gesetzt. Falls die USA ihre militärische Unterstützung für die Ukraine einstellen, müsste die EU lediglich zusätzliche 0,12 Prozent ihres BIP aufwenden, um die Lücke auszugleichen - ein machbarer Betrag. Ein amerikanisch-russisches Abkommen über die Ukraine, das zu einer weiteren Aufrüstung Russlands führen würde, würde eine Aufstockung der europäischen Kapazitäten um die Kampfstärke von 300.000 US-Soldaten erfordern. Die europäischen Verteidigungsausgaben müssten erheblich über das derzeitige Niveau von etwa 2 Prozent des BIP hinaus steigen. Erste Schätzungen legen nahe, dass kurzfristig eine Erhöhung um etwa 250 Milliarden Euro jährlich (oder etwa 3,5 Prozent des BIP) erforderlich ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Burilkov, Alexandr & Wolff, Guntram B., 2025. "Europa ohne die USA verteidigen: eine erste Analyse, was gebraucht wird [Defending Europe without the US: First estimates of what is needed]," Kiel Policy Brief 183, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:312397
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Armin Steinbach & Guntram B. Wolff, 2024. "Financing European air defence through European Union debt," Bruegel Policy Brief node_10289, Bruegel.
    2. Juan Mejino-López & Guntram B. Wolff, 2024. "A European defence industrial strategy in a hostile world," Bruegel Policy Brief node_10474, Bruegel.
    3. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    4. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2025. "Guns and growth: The economic consequences of defense buildups," Kiel Report 2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Cited by:

    1. Beaufils, Timothé & Jakob, Michael & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Richter, Philipp M. & Spiro, Daniel & Stern, Lennart & Wanner, Joschka, 2025. "Die sicherheitspolitische Dividende von Klimapolitik [The security dividend of climate policy]," Kiel Policy Brief 187, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    USA; Europa; Deutschland; Ukraine; Verteidigung; Sicherheitspolitik; USA; Europe; Germany; Ukraine; Defense; Security policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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