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Is the supermultiplier currently nil? - A replication study of Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021)

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

Analyzing US macro data via a structural vector-autoregressive model (SVAR), Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021) find strong positive spillovers from mission-oriented government spending on private research and development, as well as on overall economic activity (“crowding in”). Deleidi and Mazzucato apply the SVAR to first-differenced data despite the possibility of cointegration. The replication shows that the result hinges on the transformation of the data and the choice of the sample period. The time variation of the estimation results is substantial. When estimating the model with data starting after 1985, the results point to a temporary “crowding out” of private research and development spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2025. "Is the supermultiplier currently nil? - A replication study of Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021)," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 318260, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2025.105176
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    1. Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2021. "Back to Basics: Basic Research Spillovers, Innovation Policy, and Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Shawn Kantor & Alexander Whalley, 2025. "Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(9), pages 2891-2925, September.
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    4. Daniel P. Gross & Bhaven N. Sampat, 2023. "America, Jump-Started: World War II R&D and the Takeoff of the US Innovation System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3323-3356, December.
    5. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    6. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2021. "Directed innovation policies and the supermultiplier: An empirical assessment of mission-oriented policies in the US economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(2).
    7. Pierre Azoulay & Joshua S Graff Zivin & Danielle Li & Bhaven N Sampat, 2019. "Public R&D Investments and Private-sector Patenting: Evidence from NIH Funding Rules," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 117-152.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Recine & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2025. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Defense and Non-Defense R&D," Working Papers in Public Economics 262, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    2. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2026. "Directed Innovation Policies and the Supermultiplier: New Evidence," FMM Working Paper 122-2026, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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