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Zur Schätzung der Rolle der Fiskalmultiplikatoren während der Schuldenkrise Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

Blanchard und Leigh haben auf eine mögliche Fehleinschätzung der Fiskalmultiplikatoren in den Prognosen des IWF in der europäischen Schuldenkrise hingewiesen. In ihrer Arbeit wurde der Prognosefehler des Bruttoinlandsprodukts der Jahre 2010 und 2011 der IWF-Prognosen für europäische Länder auf die jeweils erwarteten Veränderungen des strukturellen Budgetsaldos regressiert. Die Prognosefehler korrelieren stark negativ mit den erwarteten Veränderungen des strukturellen Budgetsaldos, woraus die Autoren ableiten, dass die Fiskalmultiplikatoren unterschätzt wurden und Verbesserungen des strukturellen Budgetsaldos die Konjunktur stärker belasteten als erwartet. Die Ergebnisse erweisen sich als ausgesprochen robust gegenüber einer Vielzahl von Kontrollvariablen und Varianten. So finden sich z.B. ähnliche Ergebnisse, wenn man Daten der Europäischen Kommission verwendet. Allerdings existiert dieser Zusammenhang nur in dem genannten Zeitraum und nur für Europa. In andere Zeiträume und für andere Ländergruppen liegen entweder schwächere oder gar keine Korrelationen vor. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass es sich um ein Artefakt handeln könnte.

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2013. "Zur Schätzung der Rolle der Fiskalmultiplikatoren während der Schuldenkrise Jens Boysen-Hogrefe," Kiel Insight 2013.9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20139
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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
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