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Volkswirtschaftliche Bewertung öffentlicher Investitionen

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  • Corneo, Giacomo

Abstract

Drei Probleme der Risikobewertung bei öffentlichen Investitionen werden behandelt. Erstes Thema ist die Frage nach der richtigen Diskontrate bei unsicherem Wirtschaftswachstum. Zentrales Ergebnis ist, dass die übliche Ramsey-Gleichung bei Unsicherheit keine Gültigkeit mehr hat und einer bestimmten Korrektur bedarf. Die zweite Frage betrifft die Bewertung riskanter Investitionsprojekte mittels Sicherheitsäquivalente. Sowohl für kleine als auch für große Risiken werden praktikable Ansätze für die Bestimmung der Sicherheitsäquivalente vorgestellt. Das dritte Problem ist die Ermittlung des optimalen Zeitpunkts einer öffentlichen Investition, wenn sich die Projektunsicherheit in Zeitverlauf ändert. Es zeigt sich, dass die traditionelle Entscheidungsregel der Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse - investiere, wenn der Nettogegenwartswert positiv ist - in Situationen dieser Art irreführend ist. Eine Formel der optimalen Wartezeit für die Realisierung eines Investitionsvorhabens wird dann hergeleitet.

Suggested Citation

  • Corneo, Giacomo, 2015. "Volkswirtschaftliche Bewertung öffentlicher Investitionen," Discussion Papers 2015/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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