IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/faulre/82.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lingering illness or sudden death? Pre-exit employment developments in German establishments

Author

Listed:
  • Fackler, Daniel
  • Schnabel, Claus
  • Wagner, Joachim

Abstract

Using a large administrative dataset for Germany, this paper compares employment developments in exiting and surviving establishments. For both West and East Germany we find a clear 'shadow of death' effect reflecting lingering illness: establishments shrink dramatically already several years before closure, employment growth rates differ strongly between exiting and surviving establishments, and this difference becomes stronger as exit approaches. We further show that prior to exit the workforce becomes on average more skilled, more female and older in exiting compared to surviving establishments. These effects are more clearly visible in West than in East Germany. Our results also hold when applying a matching approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Fackler, Daniel & Schnabel, Claus & Wagner, Joachim, 2012. "Lingering illness or sudden death? Pre-exit employment developments in German establishments," Discussion Papers 82, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:faulre:82
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/73557/1/732708834.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberle, Johanna & Jacobebbinghaus, Peter & Ludsteck, Johannes & Witter, Julia, 2011. "Generation of time-consistent industry codes in the face of classification changes : Simple heuristic based on the Establishment History Panel (BHP)," FDZ Methodenreport 201105_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Michel Quere, 2010. "Market Selection Along the Firm Life Cycle," Chapters, in: Jean-Luc Gaffard & Evens Salies (ed.), Innovation, Economic Growth and the Firm, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Matthias Almus, 2004. "The Shadow of Death -- An Emperical Analysis of the Pre-Exit Performance of New German Firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 189-201, October.
    4. Kim P. Huynh & Robert J. Petrunia, 2016. "Post-Entry Struggle for Life and Pre-Exit Shadow of Death from a Financial Perspective," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18, February.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7186 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pfann Gerard A. & Hamermesh Daniel S., 2008. "Two-Sided Learning with Applications to Labor Turnover and Worker Displacement," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(5-6), pages 423-445, October.
    7. Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Discussion papers 06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Carlos Carreira & Paulino Teixeira, 2011. "The shadow of death: analysing the pre-exit productivity of Portuguese manufacturing firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 337-351, April.
    9. Daniel Fackler & Claus Schnabel & Joachim Wagner, 2013. "Establishment exits in Germany: the role of size and age," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 683-700, October.
    10. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    11. Andrew B Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2007. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 193-204, May.
    12. Richard Disney & Jonathan Haskel & Ylva Heden, 2003. "Entry, Exit and Establishment Survival in UK Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, March.
    13. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré & Lionel Nesta, 2006. "Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 319-349.
    14. Troske, Kenneth R, 1996. "The Dynamic Adjustment Process of Firm Entry and Exit in Manufacturing and Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 705-735, October.
    15. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Michel Quéré, 2008. "Market Selection Along the Firm Life Cycle," Post-Print halshs-00721063, HAL.
    16. Hethey, Tanja & Schmieder, Johannes F., 2010. "Using worker flows in the analysis of establishment turnover : evidence from German administrative data," FDZ Methodenreport 201006_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. repec:iab:iabfda:201004(en is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7185 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805, Elsevier.
    20. Edwin Leuven & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "PSMATCH2: Stata module to perform full Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, common support graphing, and covariate imbalance testing," Statistical Software Components S432001, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2018.
    21. Schwerdt, Guido, 2011. "Labor turnover before plant closure: "Leaving the sinking ship" vs. "Captain throwing ballast overboard"," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 93-101, January.
    22. Paul A. Lengermann & Lars Vilhuber, 2002. "Abandoning the Sinking Ship: The Composition of Worker Flows Prior to Displacement," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2002-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    23. repec:iab:iabfme:201105(en is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
    25. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7186 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Juan Mañez-Castillejo, 2008. "The Resource-Based Theory of the Firm and Firm Survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 231-249, March.
    27. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2010. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 291-330, April.
    28. Farber, Henry S., 1999. "Mobility and stability: The dynamics of job change in labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 2439-2483, Elsevier.
    29. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7185 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Griliches, Zvi & Regev, Haim, 1995. "Firm productivity in Israeli industry 1979-1988," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 175-203, January.
    31. Marcus Box, 2008. "The death of firms: exploring the effects of environment and birth cohort on firm survival in Sweden," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, December.
    32. Spengler, Anja, 2008. "The establishment history panel 1975-2005 : handbook version 2.0.0," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 200704_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    33. repec:iab:iabfme:201006(en is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2018. "Plant-level employment development before collective displacements: comparing mass layoffs, plant closures and bankruptcies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(50), pages 5416-5435.
    2. Power Bernadette & Ryan Geraldine & Doran Justin, 2020. "A micro-analysis of Irish firm deaths during the financial crisis (2006–2010)," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Oberfichtner, Michael, 2013. "Works council introductions: Do they reflect workers' voice?," Discussion Papers 83, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    4. Alm Bastian & Engel Dirk & Weyh Antje, 2014. "Does Switching to a Western German Employer Still Pay Off?: An Analysis for Eastern Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(5), pages 546-571, October.
    5. Fackler, Daniel & Schnabel, Claus, 2013. "Survival of Spinoffs and Other Startups: First Evidence for the Private Sector in Germany, 1976-2008," IZA Discussion Papers 7542, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2014. "The pre-exit performance of German plants - How long is the 'shadow of death'?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1644, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Alex Coad & Masatoshi Kato, 2021. "Growth paths and routes to exit: 'shadow of death' effects for new firms in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1173, October.
    8. Schröpf, Benedikt, 2021. "The dynamics of wage dispersion between firms: The role of firm entry and exit," Discussion Papers 120, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Fackler & Claus Schnabel & Joachim Wagner, 2013. "Establishment exits in Germany: the role of size and age," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 683-700, October.
    2. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2018. "Plant-level employment development before collective displacements: comparing mass layoffs, plant closures and bankruptcies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(50), pages 5416-5435.
    3. Marco Mariani & Elena Pirani & Elena Radicchi, 2013. "La sopravvivenza delle imprese negli anni della crisi: prime evidenze empiriche dalla Toscana," ECONOMIA E POLITICA INDUSTRIALE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 25-52.
    4. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2014. "The pre-exit performance of German plants - How long is the 'shadow of death'?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1644, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Carlos Carreira & Paulino Teixeira, 2011. "The shadow of death: analysing the pre-exit productivity of Portuguese manufacturing firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 337-351, April.
    6. Power Bernadette & Ryan Geraldine & Doran Justin, 2020. "A micro-analysis of Irish firm deaths during the financial crisis (2006–2010)," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Pierre Blanchard & Jean-Pierre Huiban & Claude Mathieu, 2014. "The shadow of death model revisited with an application to French firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(16), pages 1883-1893, June.
    8. Alexandra Tsvetkova & Jean-Claude Thill & Deborah Strumsky, 2014. "Metropolitan innovation, firm size, and business survival in a high-tech industry," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, October.
    9. M. Simona Andreano & Roberto Benedetti & Andrea Mazzitelli & Federica Piersimoni, 2018. "Spatial autocorrelation and clusters in modelling corporate bankruptcy of manufacturing firms," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 45(4), pages 475-491, December.
    10. Schröpf, Benedikt, 2021. "The dynamics of wage dispersion between firms: The role of firm entry and exit," Discussion Papers 120, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    11. Pål Børing, 2015. "The effects of firms’ R&D and innovation activities on their survival: a competing risks analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1045-1069, November.
    12. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2017. "Explaining wage losses after job displacement: Employer size and lost firm rents," IWH Discussion Papers 32/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Emanuele Pugliese & Pietro Santoleri, 2017. "Growth and survival of the `fitter'? Evidence from US new-born firms," LEM Papers Series 2017/06, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Redha Fares, 2022. "Bankruptcy, Performance and Market Selection: Evidence from Firms in France," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph22-01 edited by Claude Mathieu.
    15. Alex Coad & Masatoshi Kato, 2021. "Growth paths and routes to exit: 'shadow of death' effects for new firms in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1173, October.
    16. Redha Fares & Amélie Guillin & Claude Mathieu, 2020. "Failing and exporting firms: a paradox?," Erudite Working Paper 2020-08, Erudite.
    17. Steffen Mueller & Jens Stegmaier, 2015. "Economic failure and the role of plant age and size," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 621-638, March.
    18. Lars-Fredrik Andersson & Therese Danley & Rikard Eriksson & Martin Henning, 2020. "Workers’ participation in regional economic change following establishment closure," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 589-604, February.
    19. Erik Stam & Roy Thurik & Peter van der Zwan, 2010. "Entrepreneurial exit in real and imagined markets," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
    20. Roger Bandick & Holger Görg, 2016. "Foreign acquisition, plant survival, and employment growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT Volume 53: World Scientific Studies in International Economics, chapter 7, pages 115-141, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm exits; shadow of death; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:faulre:82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vierlde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.