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The shadow of death model revisited with an application to French firms

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  • Pierre Blanchard
  • Jean-Pierre Huiban
  • Claude Mathieu

Abstract

This article provides an empirical model of the shadow of death in which the exit probability of a firm depends on the firm's productive performance and the firm's level of sunk costs, which are viewed as barriers to exit. The shadow of death effect is treated by assuming a relationship between the propensity to exit and both the contemporaneous and lagged values of efficiency and sunk costs. To estimate the unobserved productive efficiency, we use the Ackerberg et al . (2006) estimator extended by the addition of a correction for selection bias. We use an unbalanced sample of approximately 100 000 French firms over the period 1997 to 2002. Our results indicate that the probability of exit is negatively affected by unobserved individual efficiency and the level of sunk costs. The shadow of death effect applies mainly in manufacturing, where both productive efficiency and sunk costs decrease during several years before exit. In service sectors, the exit process seems to occur more suddenly.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Blanchard & Jean-Pierre Huiban & Claude Mathieu, 2014. "The shadow of death model revisited with an application to French firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(16), pages 1883-1893, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:16:p:1883-1893
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.859376
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2016. "Plant-level employment development before collective displacements: Comparing mass layoffs, plant closures, and bankruptcies," IWH Discussion Papers 27/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Damien Rousselière, 2017. "A flexible approach to age dependence in organizational mortality. Comparing the life duration for cooperative and non-cooperative enterprises using a Bayesian Generalized Additive Discrete Time Survi," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 17-08, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00591 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pierre Blanchard & Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & Claude Mathieu, 2016. "(Not So) Easy Come, (Still) Easy Go? Footloose Multinationals Revisited," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 679-707, May.
    5. Rousselière, Damien, 2017. "A flexible approach to age dependence in organizational mortality. Comparing the life duration of cooperative and non-cooperative enterprises using a Bayesian Generalized Additive Discrete Time Surviv," Working Papers 264214, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).

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