Are older workers more likely to exit employment following unexpected heat waves?

An expanding body of research documents the adverse impact of heat stress on aggregate employment outcomes, particularly in climate-exposed sectors and occupations. Yet, the role of individual-level heterogeneity-especially for what concerns ageing-remains relatively underexplored. By using Italian individual-level labor market survey data over 2004-2017, this study employs a pseudo panel research design to assess the impact of heath waves on the probability of transitioning in and out of employment for different cohort groups. While preliminary individual-level evidence indicates that heat waves significantly increase the probability of employment exit and decrease the probability of employment entry; controlling for unobservable cohort-province characteristics yields that only older cohorts show a higher probability of employment exit-while only younger ones show a lower probability of entry. These findings provide robust evidence of the vulnerability of older workers to climate-related labor market disruptions, and underscore the importance of integrating age-sensitive dimensions into labor and climate policy frameworks.