Economic impact assessment of the COSME Loan Guarantee Facility: Evidence from Greece, Poland, Spain and Romania

This working paper evaluates the impact of the COSME Loan Guarantee Facility (LGF) on SMEs in Greece, Poland, Spain, and Romania between 2015 and 2023. Using advanced econometric methods, we compare SMEs that received a guarantee with a control group of similar companies. We find that SMEs benefiting from guaranteed loans outgrow their counterparts three years after the signature year, in terms of total assets, sales, and both tangible and intangible fixed assets. Moreover, beneficiary companies are less likely to go bankrupt by the end of 2023, particularly smaller and older firms. The results confirm that guaranteed loans support SME growth without adverse long-term effects on productivity or business survival. This paper is part of the ongoing work of the Impact Assessment division to support the EIF's transition to an impact-driven institution by designing and implementing a comprehensive Impact Assessment Framework. Ex-post impact studies, such as this report, play a key role in this Framework by informing and refining future support measures, while also enhancing the accuracy of predicted outcomes.