IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/dzimps/277908.html

16 Gründe für schnelles Handeln: Kipppunkte und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimapolitik

Author

Listed:
  • Huwe, Vera
  • Henze, Levi T.
  • Steitz, Janek

Abstract

Die jüngste klimawissenschaftliche Forschung zeigt, dass Kipppunkte im Erdsystem sehr viel näher sind als lange angenommen. Diese Revision hat weitreichende Folgen. In diesem Hintergrundpapier zeichnen wir den aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisstand über Kippelemente im Erdsystem knapp nach, diskutieren Wechselwirkungen mit gesellschaftlichen Risiken und leiten grundlegende Implikationen für die deutsche Klimapolitik - und auch unsere eigene Arbeit - ab. Im Erdsystem sind derzeit 16 biophysikalische Kippelemente identifiziert, die beim Überschreiten eines Schwellenwerts selbstständig in einen qualitativ anderen Zustand übergehen, was zu weitreichenden Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem führt. Bei 1,5 êC wird erstmals das Kippen mehrerer Kippelemente wahrscheinlich. Oberhalb der Grenze von 1,5 êC steigt das Risiko von Kipppunkten stark an. Aufgrund möglicher Wechselwirkungen zwischen Kippelementen könnte es außerdem zu Kippkaskaden kommen. Da die bisher angekündigten politischen Maßnahmen mit dem Pariser Klimaabkommen nicht konform sind, besteht das Risiko, kritische Schwellenwerte bald zu überschreiten. Um das Risiko von Kippdynamiken zu minimieren, sind deutliche Emissionsminderungen bereits in diesem Jahrzehnt notwendig. Klimarisiken treffen auf Gesellschaften, die schon vulnerabel sind und die politische Antworten auf die Klimakrise finden müssen. Vulnerabilitäten oder unpassende Lösungsversuche können dazu führen, dass eine gesellschaftliche oder humanitäre Katastrophe eintritt, bevor Kipppunkte im Erdsystem überschritten werden. Auch gesellschaftliche Risiken können sich kaskadenartig entfalten. Um Emissionen bereits in dieser Dekade schnell zu senken, sollten erstens Maßnahmen künftig unter der Maßgabe der Effektivität ausgewählt werden. Zweitens müssen gesellschaftliche Vulnerabilitäten reduziert und Klimaanpassung ergänzend zu rascher Emissionsminderung gestärkt werden. Drittens sollte Deutschland internationale Klimaschutzkooperationen und Länder mit geringeren finanziellen Möglichkeiten weitreichender unterstützen.

Suggested Citation

  • Huwe, Vera & Henze, Levi T. & Steitz, Janek, 2023. "16 Gründe für schnelles Handeln: Kipppunkte und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimapolitik," Papers 277908, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/277908/1/1860206344.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    2. Daron Acemoglu, 2023. "Distorted Innovation: Does the Market Get the Direction of Technology Right?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 1-28, May.
    3. Dietz, Simon & Rising, James & Stoerk, Thomas & Wagner, Gernot, 2021. "Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111807, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Olivia Serdeczny & Tabea Lissner, 2023. "Research agenda for the loss and damage fund," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(5), pages 412-412, May.
    5. Olivia Serdeczny & Tabea Lissner, 2023. "Author Correction: Research agenda for the loss and damage fund," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(7), pages 748-748, July.
    6. Simon Dietz & Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai & Frank Venmans, 2021. "Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(5), pages 895-921.
    7. Giovanni Sgubin & Didier Swingedouw & Sybren Drijfhout & Yannick Mary & Amine Bennabi, 2017. "Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Haijun Song & David B. Kemp & Li Tian & Daoliang Chu & Huyue Song & Xu Dai, 2021. "Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    10. Daniel Rosenbloom & Jochen Markard & Frank W. Geels & Lea Fuenfschilling, 2020. "Opinion: Why carbon pricing is not sufficient to mitigate climate change—and how “sustainability transition policy” can help," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(16), pages 8664-8668, April.
    11. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 567-567, July.
    12. Paul D. L. Ritchie & Joseph J. Clarke & Peter M. Cox & Chris Huntingford, 2021. "Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 592(7855), pages 517-523, April.
    13. Simon Dietz & James Rising & Thomas Stoerk & Gernot Wagner, 2021. "Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(34), pages 2103081118-, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Feng, Zhuo, 2026. "An optimal control approach to carbon pricing and green technology investment under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Alexander C. Abajian & Tamma Carleton & Kyle C. Meng & Olivier Deschênes, 2025. "Quantifying the global climate feedback from energy-based adaptation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Hametner, Markus, 2022. "Economics without ecology: How the SDGs fail to align socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    6. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    8. Kumar, Naveen & Maiti, Dibyendu, 2025. "Climate change, state capacity and uneven growth: A disaggregated analysis of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Ottmar Edenhofer & Max Franks, 2026. "Carbon, Natural Capital and the Option Values of Climate Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 12426, CESifo.
    10. Kornek, Ulrike & Klenert, David & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2021. "The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Geir B. Asheim & Rintaro Yamaguchi, 2023. "Comprehensive National Accounting for Carbon Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10562, CESifo.
    12. Marion Davin & Mouez Fodha & Thomas Seegmuller, 2025. "Distance to the End: The Question of UNsustainability," Working Papers hal-05305220, HAL.
    13. Yongyang Cai & Khyati Malik & Hyeseon Shin, 2023. "Dynamics of Global Emission Permit Prices and Regional Social Cost of Carbon under Noncooperation," Papers 2312.15563, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    14. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    15. Otto, Christian & Schult, Christoph & Vogt, Thomas, 2025. "Climate change economics in Vietnam: Redefining economic impact," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Olivier R de Bandt & Luc Jacolin & Thibault Lemaire, 2021. "Climate Change in Developing Countries: Global Warming Effects, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies," Working Papers hal-03948704, HAL.
    17. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2023. "Using Python for Parallelization," GTAP Technical Papers 6826, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    18. Andrea Vismara & Ola Ali & Carsten Kallner & Guillermo Prieto-Viertel & Rafael Prieto-Curiel, 2025. "Migrants as First Responders: A Global Estimate of Disaster-Driven Remittances," Papers 2512.16373, arXiv.org.
    19. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "A Guide to Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Naveen Kumar & Dibyendu Maiti, 2024. "The Dynamic Causal Impact of Climate Change on Economic Activity - A Disaggregated Panel Analysis of India," Working papers 345, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.dezernatzukunft.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.