IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-25019-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

Author

Listed:
  • Haijun Song

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • David B. Kemp

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Li Tian

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Daoliang Chu

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Huyue Song

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Xu Dai

    (China University of Geosciences)

Abstract

Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Haijun Song & David B. Kemp & Li Tian & Daoliang Chu & Huyue Song & Xu Dai, 2021. "Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25019-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25019-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25019-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-25019-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Terry T. Isson & Shuang Zhang & Kimberly V. Lau & Sofia Rauzi & Nicholas J. Tosca & Donald E. Penman & Noah J. Planavsky, 2022. "Marine siliceous ecosystem decline led to sustained anomalous Early Triassic warmth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Huwe, Vera & Henze, Levi T. & Steitz, Janek, 2023. "16 Gründe für schnelles Handeln: Kipppunkte und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimapolitik," Papers 277908, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    3. Arnaud Auber & Conor Waldock & Anthony Maire & Eric Goberville & Camille Albouy & Adam C. Algar & Matthew McLean & Anik Brind’Amour & Alison L. Green & Mark Tupper & Laurent Vigliola & Kristin Kaschne, 2022. "A functional vulnerability framework for biodiversity conservation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25019-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.