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From mines to markets: Gravity model insights on critical raw material trade

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  • Stender, Frederik
  • Vogel, Tim

Abstract

Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical dynamics, fuelling a global competition for supply security. This paper applies the gravity model of trade to examine how OECD countries leverage Aid for Trade (AfT), Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), and Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) to influence CRM imports from developing countries. Using extensive bilateral panel data from 1995 to 2023, we find that PTAs are particularly effective, affecting both the intensive and extensive margins of trade. These findings highlight the strategic role of formal trade agreements and suggest that a coordinated policy mix of trade diplomacy, investment, and aid is essential for resilient and diversified CRM supplies.

Suggested Citation

  • Stender, Frederik & Vogel, Tim, 2025. "From mines to markets: Gravity model insights on critical raw material trade," IDOS Discussion Papers 17/2025, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diedps:320560
    DOI: 10.23661/idp17.2025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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