The digital euro: Implications for the European banking sector

The introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in general, and of a digital euro in particular, has attracted growing interest from academic research, central banks and political decision-makers. Most of the existing literature is focused on the impact of a digital euro on monetary policy issues, financial stability - especially the potentially enhanced risk of bank runs - and related questions concerning the design options of a digital euro. However, a digital euro could negatively affect the profitability of the European banking sector. Fees from payment transaction services could decline and refinancing costs could increase, as comparatively cheap financing from retail deposits would have to be replaced in part by more expensive financing instruments such as bonds or open market operations with the ECB. This paper deals with these aspects by estimating the potential impact of a digital euro in a simulation model based on current market data. The analysis demonstrates that the annual fee losses could be in the range of €2.1 billion to €4.2 billion. The associated refinancing need due to replacements of deposits by digital euro holdings could be in the range of €324 billion to €650 billion, translating into additional refinancing costs of around €6.5 billion to €19.5 billion p.a.. Therefore, a fair compensation model for banks and payment service providers is needed to avoid adverse consequences for the profitability and resilience of the European financial sector. The paper also discusses the general need for a retail digital euro in light of the expected benefits and risks as well as implications for design options to mitigate inherent risks.