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The Lintner model revisited: Dividends versus total payouts

  • Andres, Christian
  • Doumet, Markus
  • Fernau, Erik
  • Theissen, Erik

We analyze how the introduction of repurchases in 1998, and a major tax reform in 2001, affected the payout policy of German firms. To this end, we estimate Lintner (1956) partial adjustment models for both dividends and total payouts. We also analyze the implications for payout of changes in both permanent and transitory earnings. Our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that dividends and repurchases are perfect substitutes. They are also inconsistent with the prediction that tax considerations are a major driver of payout decisions. Our results instead support the flexibility hypothesis that predicts that dividends are used to disburse permanent, and repurchases transitory, earnings.

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Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 14-02.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1402
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  8. Andres, Christian & Betzer, André & Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc, 2009. "Dividend policy of German firms: A panel data analysis of partial adjustment models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 175-187, March.
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  12. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September.
  13. Roni Michaely & Richard H. Thaler & Kent Womack, 1994. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," NBER Working Papers 4778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. Stehle, Richard & Seifert, Udo, 2003. "Stock Performance around Share Repurchase Announcements in Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,48, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  23. Chemmanur, Thomas J. & He, Jie & Hu, Gang & Liu, Helen, 2010. "Is dividend smoothing universal?: New insights from a comparative study of dividend policies in Hong Kong and the U.S," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 413-430, September.
  24. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  26. Amihud, Yakov & Murgia, Maurizio, 1997. " Dividends, Taxes, and Signaling: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 397-408, March.
  27. Sudipto Bhattacharya, 1979. "Imperfect Information, Dividend Policy, and "The Bird in the Hand" Fallacy," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 259-270, Spring.
  28. Bart M. Lambrecht & Stewart C. Myers, 2012. "A Lintner Model of Payout and Managerial Rents," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1761-1810, October.
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