IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information

  • Kempf, Alexander
  • Korn, Olaf
  • Saßning, Sven
Registered author(s):

    We develop a new family of estimators of the covariance matrix that relies solely on forwardlooking information. It uses only current prices of plain-vanilla options. In an out-of-sample study we show that a minimum-variance strategy based on these fully-implied estimators outperforms several benchmark strategies, including various strategies based on historical estimates, index investing, and 1/N investing. The outperformance originates in crisis periods when information ow and information asymmetry are high. Although the historical benchmark strategies improve when more recent data is used, they never outperform fully-implied strategies. Thus, our results suggest that investors are better off relying on forward-looking information.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/92383/1/777249685.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 11-10 [rev.].

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1110r
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 0221 / 470 5607
    Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
    Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
    Web page: http://cfr-cologne.de/english/version06/html/home.php
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    2. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
    3. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
    5. Bo-Young Chang & Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Gregory Vainberg, 2009. "Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-33, CIRANO.
    6. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, 06.
    7. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    8. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
    9. Thomas Busch & Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008. "The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets," Working Papers 1181, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    10. Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
    11. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Bo Young Chang, 2011. "Forecasting with Option Implied Information," CREATES Research Papers 2011-46, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    12. Joel M. Vanden, 2008. "Information Quality and Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2635-2676, November.
    13. Kumar, Raman & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1992. " The Behavior of Option Price around Large Block Transactions in the Underlying Security," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 879-89, July.
    14. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(01), pages 29-58, March.
    15. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2001. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection," Economics Working Papers 586, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-42.
    17. Chan, Louis K C & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1999. "On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 937-74.
    18. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Francisco J. Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2009. "A Generalized Approach to Portfolio Optimization: Improving Performance by Constraining Portfolio Norms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 798-812, May.
    19. Jun Pan & Allen Poteshman, 2004. "The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(03), pages 641-662, June.
    21. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    22. Grauer, Robert R. & Shen, Frederick C., 2000. "Do constraints improve portfolio performance?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1253-1274, August.
    23. DeMiguel, Victor & Plyakha, Yuliya & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2013. "Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(06), pages 1813-1845, December.
    24. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Jonathan Spitzer, 2006. "Improved Estimates of Correlation Coefficients and their Impact on Optimum Portfolios," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(3), pages 303-318.
    25. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    26. Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, 04.
    27. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    28. Lionel Martellini & Volker Ziemann, 2010. "Improved Estimates of Higher-Order Comoments and Implications for Portfolio Selection," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1467-1502, April.
    29. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
    30. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2002. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," NBER Working Papers 8922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    32. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    33. Cremers, Martijn & Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(02), pages 335-367, April.
    34. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    35. Vasiliki D. Skintzi & Apostolos‐Paul N. Refenes, 2005. "Implied correlation index: A new measure of diversification," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 171-197, 02.
    36. Adrian Buss & Grigory Vilkov, 2012. "Measuring Equity Risk with Option-implied Correlations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3113-3140.
    37. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    38. P. Carr & D. Madan, 2001. "Optimal positioning in derivative securities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 19-37.
    39. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, 04.
    40. Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Yu, Peng, 2010. "A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2678-2693, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1110r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.