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Which interest rate scenario is the worst one for a bank? Evidence from a tracking bank approach for German savings and cooperative banks

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  • Memmel, Christoph

Abstract

Interest income is the most important source of revenue for most of the banks. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of different interest rate scenarios on the banks' interest income. As we do not know the interest rate sensitivity of real banks, we construct for each bank a portfolio with a similar composition of its assets and liabilities, called 'tracking bank'. We evaluate the effect of 260 historical interest rate shocks on the tracking banks of German savings banks and cooperative banks. It turns out that a sharp decrease in the steepness of the yield curve has the most negative impact on the banks' interest income.

Suggested Citation

  • Memmel, Christoph, 2008. "Which interest rate scenario is the worst one for a bank? Evidence from a tracking bank approach for German savings and cooperative banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7317
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    1. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 112-134.
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    3. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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    6. Schich, Sebastian T., 1997. "Schätzung der deutschen Zinsstrukturkurve," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. James M. O'Brien, 2000. "Estimating the value and interest rate risk of interest-bearing transactions deposits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts & Mostafa Tabbae, 2006. "Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing," DNB Working Papers 119, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Wilkens, Marco & Memmel, Christoph & Entrop, Oliver & Zeisler, Alexander, 2008. "Analyzing the interest rate risk of banks using time series of accounting-based data: evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Memmel, Christoph, 2011. "Banks' exposure to interest rate risk, their earnings from term transformation, and the dynamics of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 282-289, February.
    2. repec:kuk:journl:v:50:y:2017:i:3:p:363-392 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Memmel, Christoph & Schertler, Andrea, 2011. "Banks' management of the net interest margin: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    4. Ramona Busch & Christoph Memmel, 2017. "Banks’ Net Interest Margin and the Level of Interest Rates," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(3), pages 363-392.
    5. Ruprecht, Benedikt & Entrop, Oliver & Kick, Thomas & Wilkens, Marco, 2013. "Market timing, maturity mismatch, and risk management: Evidence from the banking industry," Discussion Papers 56/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Entrop, Oliver & Memmel, Christoph & Ruprecht, Benedikt & Wilkens, Marco, 2015. "Determinants of bank interest margins: Impact of maturity transformation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Christoph Memmel & Andrea Schertler, 2013. "Bank management of the net interest margin: new measures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(3), pages 275-297, September.
    8. Memmel, Christoph & Seymen, Atılım & Teichert, Max, 2016. "Banks' interest rate risk and search for yield: A theoretical rationale and some empirical evidence," Discussion Papers 22/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rate Risk; Stress Testing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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