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Which interest rate scenario is the worst one for a bank? Evidence from a tracking bank approach for German savings and cooperative banks

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  • Christoph Memmel

Abstract

Interest income is the most important source of revenue for most banks. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of different interest rate scenarios on the banks' interest income. As we do not know the interest rate sensitivity of real banks, we construct for each bank a portfolio with a similar composition of its assets and liabilities, called 'tracking bank'. We evaluate the effect of 260 historical interest rate shocks on the tracking banks of German savings and cooperative banks. It turns out that a sharp decrease in the steepness of the yield curve has the most negative impact on the banks' interest income.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Memmel, 2008. "Which interest rate scenario is the worst one for a bank? Evidence from a tracking bank approach for German savings and cooperative banks," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 85-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:injbaf:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:85-104
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    Cited by:

    1. Memmel, Christoph, 2011. "Banks' exposure to interest rate risk, their earnings from term transformation, and the dynamics of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 282-289, February.
    2. Claußen, Catharina & Platte, Daniel, 2023. "Evaluating the validity of regulatory interest rate risk measures – a simulation approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Busch, Ramona & Memmel, Christoph, 2015. "Banks' net interest margin and the level of interest rates," Discussion Papers 16/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Ruprecht, Benedikt & Entrop, Oliver & Kick, Thomas & Wilkens, Marco, 2013. "Market timing, maturity mismatch, and risk management: Evidence from the banking industry," Discussion Papers 56/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Andreas Dombret & Yalin Gündüz & Jörg Rocholl, 2019. "Will German Banks Earn Their Cost Of Capital?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 156-169, January.
    6. Holton, Sarah & Kelly, Jane & Lydon, Reamonn & Monks, Allen & O'Donnell, Nuala, 2013. "The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Banks' Net Interest Margins," Economic Letters 01/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Schmidhammer, Christoph & Hille, Vanessa & Wiedemann, Arnd, 2020. "Performance of maturity transformation strategies," Discussion Papers 58/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Christoph Memmel & Andrea Schertler, 2013. "Bank management of the net interest margin: new measures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(3), pages 275-297, September.
    9. Matěj Kuc & Petr Teplý, 2023. "Are European commercial banks more profitable than cooperative banks? Evidence from a low interest rate environment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4385-4400, October.
    10. Memmel Christoph & Seymen Atılım & Teichert Max, 2018. "Banks’ Interest Rate Risk and Search for Yield: A Theoretical Rationale and Some Empirical Evidence," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 330-350, August.
    11. Memmel, Christoph & Schertler, Andrea, 2011. "Banks' management of the net interest margin: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Memmel, Christoph & Heckmann-Draisbach, Lotta, 2023. "Banks' net interest margin and changes in the term structure," Discussion Papers 11/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Chaudron, Raymond F.D.D., 2018. "Bank's interest rate risk and profitability in a prolonged environment of low interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 94-104.
    14. Jakob Lichtner, Marcus Riekeberg, Friedrich Thie?en, Thomas Maurer, 2018. "Evaluation of Banks' Interest Rate Risk: An Alternative Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(6), pages 111-125, November.
    15. Entrop, Oliver & Memmel, Christoph & Ruprecht, Benedikt & Wilkens, Marco, 2015. "Determinants of bank interest margins: Impact of maturity transformation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-19.
    16. Raymond Chaudron, 2016. "Bank profitability and risk taking in a prolonged environment of low interest rates: a study of interest rate risk in the banking book of Dutch banks," DNB Working Papers 526, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Busch, Ramona & Memmel, Christoph, 2021. "Why are interest rates on bank deposits so low?," Discussion Papers 46/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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