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Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Hevia, Constantino

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Petrella, Ivan

    (University of Warwick and CEPR)

  • Sola, Martin

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

Abstract

We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic seasonality. We document the existence of stochastic seasonal fluctuations in commodity futures and that properly accounting for the cost-of-carry curve requires at least three factors. We estimate the model using data on heating oil futures and analyze the contribution of the factors to risk premia. Correctly specifying seasonality as stochastic is important to avoid erroneously assigning those fluctuations to other risk factors. We also estimate a nonlinear version of the model that imposes the zero lower bound on interest rates and find similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • Hevia, Constantino & Petrella, Ivan & Sola, Martin, 2018. "Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures," EMF Research Papers 18, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkemf:18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Yunyi Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 456-462, April.
    2. Czudaj, Robert L., 2019. "Dynamics between trading volume, volatility and open interest in agricultural futures markets: A Bayesian time-varying coefficient approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 78-145.
    3. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan, 2019. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Risk," EMF Research Papers 23, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    4. Spencer, Simon & Bredin, Don, 2019. "Agreement matters: OPEC announcement effects on WTI term structure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 589-609.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures; Seasonality; Cost-of-carry; Risk premium; Nelson and Siegel; JEL Classification Numbers: C22 ; G12 ; G13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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