IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpri/0306004.html

Extreme Moves in Foreign Exchange Rates and Risk Limit Setting

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Dacorogna

    (Converium)

  • Peter Blum

    (Converium)

Abstract

Foreign exchange rates can be subject to considerable daily fluctuations (up to 5 percent within one day). This can, in certain cases, cause serious losses on open overnight positions. Given a maximum tolerable loss for a company, limits have to be set on open overnight positions in foreign currencies. Usually, these limits are determined by using a normal ("Gaussian") model for the daily fluctuations. In our study we illustrate how this common model sometimes quite strongly underestimates the actual extreme risks and, based on methods from the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we propose and justify a more accurate model.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Dacorogna & Peter Blum, 2003. "Extreme Moves in Foreign Exchange Rates and Risk Limit Setting," Risk and Insurance 0306004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpri:0306004
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP A4; pages: 12 ; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/ri/papers/0306/0306004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier V. Pictet & Michel M. Dacorogna & Ulrich A. Muller, 1996. "Hill, Bootstrap and Jackknife Estimators for Heavy Tails," Working Papers 1996-12-10, Olsen and Associates.
    2. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    4. Gençay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Muller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier & Olsen, Richard, 2001. "An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796715.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ana-Maria Gavril, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk: Heads or Tails," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 35, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hussain, Saiful Izzuan & Li, Steven, 2015. "Modeling the distribution of extreme returns in the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 263-276.
    2. Kratz , Marie, 2013. "There is a VaR Beyond Usual Approximations," ESSEC Working Papers WP1317, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    3. Mondher Bellalah & Marc Lavielle, 2002. "A Decomposition of Empirical Distributions with Applications to the Valuation of Derivative Assets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 99-130, June.
    4. Marie Kratz, 2013. "There is a VaR Beyond Usual Approximations," Working Papers hal-00880258, HAL.
    5. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Frederiksen, Per, 2008. "Finite sample accuracy and choice of sampling frequency in integrated volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-286, March.
    6. Brandi, Giuseppe & Di Matteo, T., 2022. "Multiscaling and rough volatility: An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Longin, Francois, 2005. "The choice of the distribution of asset returns: How extreme value theory can help?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1017-1035, April.
    9. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2006. "Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-563, April.
    10. Ata Türkoğlu, 2016. "Normally distributed high-frequency returns: a subordination approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, March.
    11. Leah Kelly, 2004. "Inference and Intraday Analysis of Diversified World Stock Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 24, July-Dece.
    12. Y. Malevergne & V. F. Pisarenko & D. Sornette, 2003. "Empirical Distributions of Log-Returns: between the Stretched Exponential and the Power Law?," Papers physics/0305089, arXiv.org.
    13. Miccichè, S., 2016. "Understanding the determinants of volatility clustering in terms of stationary Markovian processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 186-197.
    14. Vladimir Petrov & Anton Golub & Richard Olsen, 2019. "Instantaneous Volatility Seasonality of High-Frequency Markets in Directional-Change Intrinsic Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, April.
    15. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Rasmussen, Henrik & Ravanelli, Claudia, 2005. "An option pricing formula for the GARCH diffusion model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 287-310, April.
    16. Baldovin, Fulvio & Caporin, Massimiliano & Caraglio, Michele & Stella, Attilio L. & Zamparo, Marco, 2015. "Option pricing with non-Gaussian scaling and infinite-state switching volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 486-497.
    17. Gael M. Martin & Andrew Reidy & Jill Wright, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of Market Microstructure Noise and Random Jumps on the Relative Forecasting Performance of Option-Implied and Returns-Based Volatility," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    18. Christian Walter, 2020. "Sustainable Financial Risk Modelling Fitting the SDGs: Some Reflections," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-28, September.
    19. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2006. "An Analysis of Stock Index Distributions of Selected Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 62490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Marie Kratz, 2013. "There is a VaR beyond usual approximations," Papers 1311.0270, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpri:0306004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.