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The Evolution of Tax Evasion in the Czech Republic: A Markov Chain Analysis


  • Jan Hanousek

    (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education-Economics Institute)

  • Filip Palda

    (École nationale d'administration publique at Montreal)


We use a dataset of 1062 individuals from the Czech Republic to forecast the evolution of tax evasion in that country. We ask each respondent how intensely (never, sometimes, often) he evaded taxes in 1995, 1999, and 2000, to calculate probabilities the average individual will move between these categories of evasion in any given year. These "trasition" probabilities allow us to predict a rising tide of tax evasion in the next decade. We estimate the reduced form parameters which determine evasion and suggest how government might influence these parameters to prevent the Czech Republic from bogging down in a permanent mire of tax evasion. (JEL Codes : H26, H43, K42, O17)

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hanousek & Filip Palda, 2002. "The Evolution of Tax Evasion in the Czech Republic: A Markov Chain Analysis," Public Economics 0205002, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0205002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eduardo Engel & James R. Hines Jr., 1998. "Understanding Tax Evasion Dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo 47, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    2. Reinganum, Jennifer F & Wilde, Louis L, 1991. "Equilibrium Enforcement and Compliance in the Presence of Tax Practitioners," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 163-181, Spring.
    3. James Andreoni & Brian Erard & Jonathan Feinstein, 1998. "Tax Compliance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 818-860, June.
    4. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz, 1996. "Tax evasion and the optimum general income tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-249, May.
    5. Fortin, Bernard & Lacroix, Guy & Montmarquette, Claude, 2000. "Are Underground Workers More Likely to be Underground Consumers?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 838-860, October.
    6. Feige, Edgar L & McGee, Robert T, 1983. " Sweden's Laffer Curve: Taxation and the Unobserved Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 499-519.
    7. Jan Hanousek & Filip Palda, 2002. "Why People Evade Taxes in the Czech and Slovak Republics: A Tale of Twins," Public Economics 0205003, EconWPA.
    8. Jung, Young H. & Snow, Arthur & Trandel, Gregory A., 1994. "Tax evasion and the size of the underground economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 391-402, July.
    9. Watson, Harry, 1985. "Tax evasion and labor markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 231-246, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Hanousek & Filip Palda, 2004. "Quality of Government Services and the Civic Duty to Pay Taxes in the Czech and Slovak Republics, and other Transition Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 237-252, May.
    2. Pavla Nikolovova & Filip Pertold & Mario Vozar, 2014. "Self-employment and Small Workplaces in the Czech and Slovak Republics: Microeconometric Analysis of Labor Force Transitions," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0402132, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    More about this item


    Tax evasion; transition economies; dynamic modelling; Czech Republic;

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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