IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpmh/0211001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty in the Austrian Theory of Capital

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan W. Schmitz

    (ICE, Austrian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This paper is based on the traditional Austrian Theory of Capital which deals with expected values of future returns of investments over various periods of time. The longer the time period that elapses between the beginning of a production process and its end, the higher the (expected) productivity must be due to positive time preferences of individuals. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of future returns and on uncertainty preferences, instead. Based on the Hayekian idea of the dispersion of knowledge in society, it will be shown that there is a systematic relationship between the structure of capital and uncertainty. This result will be derived for a production process characterized by complete vertical integration and one which is not completely vertically integrated. The distinction between these two settings is crucial, if one accepts the distinction between an individual and a social period of production and the planning horizon which are introduced in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan W. Schmitz, 2002. "Uncertainty in the Austrian Theory of Capital," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0211001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmh:0211001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on wordfile on mac; pages: 37; figures: none. Submitted to Review of Austrian Economics
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mhet/papers/0211/0211001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morishima,Michio, 1992. "Capital and Credit," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521418409, October.
    2. Lewin, Peter, 1997. "Rothbard and Mises on Interest: An Exercise in Theoretical Purity," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 141-159, April.
    3. Hoppe, Hans-Hermann, 1997. "On Certainty and Uncertainty, or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 49-78.
    4. Israel M. Kirzner, 1997. "Entrepreneurial Discovery and the Competitive Market Process: An Austrian Approach," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 60-85, March.
    5. Peter Lewin, 1994. "Capital theory," Chapters, in: Peter J. Boettke (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Austrian Economics, chapter 31, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Foss Kirsten & Foss Nicolai & Klein Peter G. & Klein Sandra K., 2002. "Heterogeneous Capital, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Organization," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Peter J. Boettke (ed.), 1994. "The Elgar Companion to Austrian Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 53.
    8. Klaus H. Hennings & Heinz D. Kurz, 1997. "The Austrian Theory of Value and Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 839.
    9. Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
    10. Israel M. Kirzner, 1996. "Essays on Capital and Interest," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1009.
    11. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
    12. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226320625 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. George Bitros, 2008. "Why the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components matter: A test based on a model of Austrian descent," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 301-328, December.
    2. Robert Mulligan, 2006. "Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 311-336, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leonid Krasnozhon & John Levendis, 2015. "Mises and prediction markets: Can markets forecast?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 41-52, March.
    2. Foss Kirsten & Foss Nicolai & Klein Peter G. & Klein Sandra K., 2002. "Heterogeneous Capital, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Organization," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, March.
    3. H. Henry Cao & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Harold H. Zhang, 2011. "Fear of the Unknown: Familiarity and Economic Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 173-206.
    4. repec:esx:essedp:770 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2018. "Trading ambiguity: a tale of two heterogeneities," Working Papers halshs-01935319, HAL.
    6. Christian Gollier, 2011. "Portfolio Choices and Asset Prices: The Comparative Statics of Ambiguity Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1329-1344.
    7. Shin-Ichi Fukuda, 2012. "Infrequent Changes Of The Policy Target: Robust Optimal Monetary Policy Under Ambiguity," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-27.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
    9. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2018. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 945-993, July.
    10. Alain Chateauneuf & Luciano De Castro, 2011. "Ambiguity Aversion and Absence of Trade," Discussion Papers 1535, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    11. Matteo Del Vigna, 2011. "Ambiguity made easier," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2011-07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    12. Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2009. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 543-566, October.
    13. Carmela Di Mauro, 2009. "Prices in experimental asset markets under uncertainty," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 149-163.
    14. Wolfgang Kerber & Simonetta Vezzoso, 2004. "EU Competition Policy, Vertical Restraints, and Innovation: An Analysis from an Evolutionary Perspective," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200414, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2006. "Flight to Quality and Collective Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 12136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Anders Liljenberg, 2005. "The Austrian Tertius Gaudens: A Revisit of Competition Theory in Light of Georg Simmel," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 195-218, June.
    17. Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2009. "Uncertainty aversion in a heterogeneous agent model of foreign exchange rate formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1106-1122, May.
    18. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Exchange Rate Anomalies Under Model Misspecification: A Mixed Optimal/Robust Approach (January 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 266, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Takao Asano, 2010. "Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy Under Ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 173-196, October.
    20. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    21. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon & EUREQua & CNRS - Universite Paris I., 2003. "An overview of economic applications of David Schmeidler`s models of decision making under uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers 165, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austrian Economics; Uncertainty; Capital Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B13 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian)
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmh:0211001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.