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More on Bernanke's “Bad News Principle”

Author

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  • Yishay D. Maoz

    (University of Haifa)

Abstract

The role that Bernanke’s Bad News Principle plays in the modern theory of investment under uncertainty is analyzed. The analysis shows that the actual investment dilemma is that by delaying investment firms trade off a higher present value of earnings for a lower present value of the investment cost, in contrast to previous interpretations of this dilemma. The economic interpretation of the Smooth Pasting Condition is clarified too: it represents the trade-off mentioned above. I also show that investment triggers may stay intact despite changes in the profit process, if the changes are restricted to the range of sufficiently high profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Yishay D. Maoz, 2005. "More on Bernanke's “Bad News Principle”," General Economics and Teaching 0510002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0510002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0510/0510002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "Irreversible Investment with Price Ceilings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 541-557, June.
    2. Drazen, Allan & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 1999. "News About News: Information Arrival and Irreversible Investment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 451-462, September.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Tarun Sabarwal, 2005. "The non-neutrality of debt in investment timing: a new NPV rule," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 433-445, October.
    5. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    6. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    8. Dumas, Bernard, 1991. "Super contact and related optimality conditions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 675-685, October.
    9. Dixit, Avinash & Pindyck, Robert S & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1999. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Investment Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 179-189, April.
    10. Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1998. "A simplified exposition of smooth pasting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 217-223, February.
    11. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 1996. "Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty: The limiting deterministic case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 77-82, April.
    12. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:3:p:451-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    14. John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
    15. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "A simplified treatment of the theory of optimal regulation of Brownian motion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 657-673, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Uncertainty; Option Value; Competition;

    JEL classification:

    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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