A local non-parametric model for trade sign inference
We investigate a regularity in market order submission strategies for twelve stocks with large market capitalization on the Australian Stock Exchange. The regularity is evidenced by a predictable relationship between the trade sign (trade initiator), size of the trade, and the contents of the limit order book before the trade. We demonstrate this predictability by developing an empirical inference model to classify trades into buyer-initiated and seller-initiated. The model employs a local non-parametric method, k-nearest-neighbor, which in the past was used successfully for chaotic time series prediction. The k-nearest- neighbor with three predictor variables achieves an average out-of- sample classification accuracy of 71.40%, compared to 63.32% for the linear logistic regression with seven predictor variables. The result suggests that a non-linear approach may produce a more parsimonious trade sign inference model with a higher out-of-sample classification accuracy. Furthermore, for most of our stocks the observed regularity in market order submissions seems to have a memory of at least 30 trading days.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilija Zovko & J Doyne Farmer, 2002. "The power of patience: a behavioural regularity in limit-order placement," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 387-392.
- Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 529-551, December.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003.
"Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes,"
cond-mat/0307332, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0307332, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
- Hedvall, Kaj & Niemeyer, Jonas & Rosenqvist, Gunnar, 1997.
"Do buyers and sellers behave similarly in a limit order book? A high-frequency data examination of the Finnish stock exchange,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 279-293, June.
- Hedvall, Kaj & Niemeyer, Jonas & Rosenqvist, Gunnar, 1997. "Do Buyers and Sellers Behave Similarly in a Limit Order Book? A High-Frequency Data Examination of the Finnish Stock Exchange," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 160, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Hamao, Y. & Hasbrouck, J., 1992.
"Securities Trading in the Absence of Dealers: Trade and Quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange,"
92-35, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "Securities Trading in the Absence of Dealers: Trades and Quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 849-78.
- Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
- Aitken, Michael & Frino, Alex, 1996. "The accuracy of the tick test: Evidence from the Australian stock exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1715-1729, December.
- Verhoeven, Peter & Ching, Simon & Guan Ng, Hock, 2004. "Determinants of the decision to submit market or limit orders on the ASX," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Ahn, Hee-Joon & Cheung, Yan-Leung, 1999. "The intraday patterns of the spread and depth in a market without market makers: The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 539-556, December.
- Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2003.
"The long memory of the efficient market,"
cond-mat/0311053, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2004.
- Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
- Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
- Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2002. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0210710, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Ranaldo, Angelo, 2004. "Order aggressiveness in limit order book markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-74, January.
- Michael Aitken & Amaryllis Kua & Philip Brown & Terry Watter & H. Y. Izan, 1995. "An Intraday Analysis of the Probability of Trading on the ASX at the Asking Price," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(2), pages 115-154, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0408009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.