Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean reverting limit orders that lead to sub-diffusion (or anti-persistence). We define and study a model where the price, at any instant, is the result of the impact of all past trades, mediated by a non constant `propagator' in time that describes the response of the market to a single trade. Within this model, the market is shown to be, in a precise sense, at a critical point, where the price is purely diffusive and the average response function almost constant. We find empirically, and discuss theoretically, a fluctuation-response relation. We also discuss the fraction of truly informed market orders, that correctly anticipate short term moves, and find that it is quite small.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2003|
|Date of revision:||Aug 2003|
|Publication status:||Published in Quantitative Finance 4 (April 2004) 176-190|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric Smith & J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2002.
"Statistical theory of the continuous double auction,"
- Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2002. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0210710, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0203511, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Damien Challet & Robin Stinchcombe, 2001.
"Analyzing and modelling 1+1d markets,"
cond-mat/0106114, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2001.
- Challet, Damien & Stinchcombe, Robin, 2001. "Analyzing and modeling 1+1d markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 300(1), pages 285-299.
- D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y. -C. Zhang, 2000.
"From Minority Games to real markets,"
- Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont, 1998. "A Langevin approach to stock market fluctuations and crashes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500027, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- P. Bak & M. Paczuski & Martin Shubik, 1996.
"Price Variations in a Stock Market with Many Agents,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1132, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Bak, P. & Paczuski, M. & Shubik, M., 1997. "Price variations in a stock market with many agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 430-453.
- P. Bak & M. Paczuski & M. Shubik, 1996. "Price Variations in a Stock Market with Many Agents," Working Papers 96-09-075, Santa Fe Institute.
- Mark J. Powers, 2000. "Introduction," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 3-4, 01.
- Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2001. "Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/0106657, arXiv.org.
- Damien Challet & Robin Stinchcombe, 2003. "Non-constant rates and over-diffusive prices in a simple model of limit order markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 155-162.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 251-256.
- Frantisek Slanina, 2001. "Mean-field approximation for a limit order driven market model," Papers cond-mat/0104547, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2001.
- J-P. Bouchaud, 2001. "Power laws in economics and finance: some ideas from physics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 105-112.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & L. A. N. Amaral & M. Meyer & H. E. Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies," Papers cond-mat/9907161, arXiv.org.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0307332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.