The Price of Gold: A Global Required Yield Theory
We construct a gold valuation theory based on viewing gold as a global real store of wealth. We show that the real price of gold varies inversely to the stock market P/E and thus is a direct function of a global yield required to achieve a constant real after-tax return equal to long-term global real GDP per-capita growth. We introduce a new exchange rate parity rule based on the equalization of inverse stock market P/Es (required yields) across nations. Foreign exchange affects the price of gold to the extent that required yields and purchasing parity equalizations do not take place across nations in the short run. A quarterly valuation model is constructed using concurrent economic data that is within 12% mean percentage tracking error from real U.S. gold prices from 1979- 2002. Several major world events have had a large but fleeting impact on gold prices.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Barsky & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985.
"Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard,"
NBER Working Papers
1680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dipak Ghosh & Eric Levin & Robert E Wright & The Centre for Economic Policy Research, .
"Gold as an Inflation Hedge?,"
Working Papers Series
96/10, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- Pritchett, Lant, 1995.
"Divergence, big time,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1522, The World Bank.
- Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003.
"A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return,"
0311005, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2004.
- Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2004. "A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return," Finance 0403004, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2004.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0403003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.