IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpem/0410001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Chinese stock markets share common information arrival processes?

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Kostov

    (Queen's University Belfast)

  • Ziping Wu

    (Queen's University Belfast)

  • Seamus McErlean

    (Queen's University Belfast)

Abstract

According to the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH), returns volatility and trading volume are driven by a common news arrival variable. Consequently, these two variables should be correlated. This paper extends, and to some extent, globalises the concept of a common information arrival process by hypothesising that this variable drives daily price (returns) volatility and trading volume changes in different financial markets. An implication is that returns volatility in one stock market should show positive and contemporaneous correlation with returns volatility in another stock market. This paper tests this implication using data from three separate, but geographically close, stock markets (Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hong Kong). A problem in the usual testing procedure is the likelihood that the news arrival process has long memory. This means that both volatility and volume (or external volatility) will have long memory and consequently, contemporaneous correlation between these variables is likely to be incorrectly rejected in cases where the test equation does not account for long memory. This paper uses fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) to test and account for long memory. The analysis finds that there is contemporaneous correlation between returns volatility in these stock markets and confirms the presence of long memory effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Kostov & Ziping Wu & Seamus McErlean, 2004. "Do Chinese stock markets share common information arrival processes?," Econometrics 0410001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0410001 Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/em/papers/0410/0410001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    2. Salim M. Darbar & Partha Deb, 1997. "Co-Movements In International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 305-322, September.
    3. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    4. Hu, John Wei-Shan & Chen, Mei-Yuan & Fok, Robert C. W. & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 1997. "Causality in volatility and volatility spillover effects between US, Japan and four equity markets in the South China Growth Triangular," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 351-367, December.
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    6. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    7. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
    8. Xu, Cheng Kenneth, 2000. "The microstructure of the Chinese stock market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 79-97.
    9. Fischer, K P & Palasvirta, A P, 1990. "High Road to a Global Marketplace: The International Transmission of Stock Market Fluctuations," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 371-394, August.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Jubinski, Dan, 1999. "Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-21, January.
    11. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    12. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "Cross-Security Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 39-46, March.
    13. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
    14. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1979. "The Relationship between Equity Indices on World Exchanges," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 103-114, March.
    15. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1994. "Endogenous Trading Volume and Momentum in Stock-Return Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-260, April.
    16. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    17. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    18. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 107-131, April.
    19. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
    20. Harris, Lawrence, 1987. "Transaction Data Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 127-141, June.
    21. Friedmann, Ralph & Sanddorf-Kohle, Walter G., 2002. "Volatility clustering and nontrading days in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 193-217.
    22. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    23. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
    24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mixture of distributions hypothesis; news arrival process; FIGARCH; volatility; long memory;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0410001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.