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Neural Networks in the Capital Markets: An Application to Index Forecasting

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  • Helmenstein, Christian
  • Häfke, Christian

Abstract

In this article we construct an Index of Austrian Initial Public Offerings (IPOX) which is isomorph to the Austrian Traded Index (ATX). Conjecturing that the ATX qualifies as an explaining variable for the IPOX, we investigate the time trend properties of and the comovement between the two indices. We use the relationship to construct a TJ.eural network and a linear error-correction forecasting model for the IPOX and base a tracling scheme on either forecast. The results suggest that trading based on the forecasts significantly increases an investor's return as compared to Buy and Hold or simple Moving Average trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmenstein, Christian & Häfke, Christian, 1995. "Neural Networks in the Capital Markets: An Application to Index Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 32, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:6308
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlinde Fellner & Matthias Sutter, 2009. "Causes, Consequences, and Cures of Myopic Loss Aversion - An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 900-916, April.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer & Paul Ramskogler, 2008. "Uncertainty and Exploitation in History," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 175-194, March.
    3. Badinger, Harald & Kubin, Ingrid, 2007. "Vom kurzfristigen zum mittelfristigen Gleichgewicht in einer offenen Volkswirtschaft unter fixen und flexiblen Wechselkursen," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 101, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Pasquale Commendatore & Ingrid Kubin & Carmelo Petraglia, 2009. "Footloose Capital and Productive Public Services," Chapters, in: Neri Salvadori & Pasquale Commendatore & Massimo Tamberi (ed.),Geography, Structural Change and Economic Development, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Riedl, Aleksandra & Rocha-Akis, Silvia, 2007. "Testing the tax competition theory: How elastic are national tax bases in western Europe?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 112, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Steidl, Annemarie & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2007. "Coming and leaving. Internal mobility in late Imperial Austria," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 107, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    7. Özlem Onaran, 2007. "International financial markets and fragility in the Eastern Europe: "can it happen" here?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp108, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.

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