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Coping with uncertainty in the inland navigation market: the impact of climate change


  • Piet Rietveld


  • Erhan Demirel
  • Jos van Ommeren


Low water levels are a potential threat to the inland navigation market. We develop a theoretical model to analyze low water-level uncertainty in the inland navigation market. A negative effect of climate change on welfare is expected due to the increase in cost per tonne of transport when low water levels occur more frequently. The market actors may take measures to adapt to the new situation of climate change. As an example, we study barge-size adjustments by barge operators. We show that in the current market (both before and after climate change) there are incentives to almost double the barge size. The reason that this still has not occurred may be explained by the long lifetime of barges that are currently in use. Thus, climate change does not provide a reason to stop the current trend towards larger barges. The only effect is that this trend towards larger barges will end at a lower size than would be the case without climate change. The public sector may also take measures to decrease the harm caused by climate change. In this study we consider an investment in infrastructure by means of dredging. We find a benefit-cost ratio higher than for this for investments both before and after climate change. Thus, both with and without climate change, welfare would increase if government intensifies dredging. After climate change, public adaptation may be more important than private adaptation when the situation is optimal before climate change. For the combined effect of barge-size adjustment and infrastructure investment, it can be concluded that the benefit in terms of expected welfare is 'super-additive' for the situation before climate and also for the situation after climate change when starting from the current situation. This 'super-additivity' property can be attributed to the opportunity for barge operators to hold even larger barges in the new environment where low water is less harmful for their capacities. However, for the situation after climate change, when starting from an optimized situation, super-additivity no longer holds.

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  • Piet Rietveld & Erhan Demirel & Jos van Ommeren, 2011. "Coping with uncertainty in the inland navigation market: the impact of climate change," ERSA conference papers ersa11p85, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p85

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Solomou, Solomos & Wu, Weike, 1999. "Weather effects on European agricultural output, 1850 1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 351-373, December.
    2. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    3. Olaf Jonkeren & Piet Rietveld & Jos van Ommeren, 2007. "Climate Change and Inland Waterway Transport: Welfare Effects of Low Water Levels on the river Rhine," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(3), pages 387-411, September.
    4. Feder, Gershon, 1980. "Farm Size, Risk Aversion and the Adoption of New Technology under Uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 263-283, July.
    5. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-317, June.
    6. Saha, Atanu, 1994. "A two-season agricultural household model of output and price uncertainty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 245-269, December.
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