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Spatial Dependence and the Determinants of Child Births in Swedish Municipalities 1974-2002


  • Krister Sandberg


  • Thomas Westerberg


The overall Swedish total fertility rate (TFR) has been shown to fluctuate quite dramatically during the last 40 years, from 2.4 in 1965 reaching down as low as 1.5 in 1999. Although numerous studies in the past have tried to explain this fluctuation, there has been surprisingly little focus on impacts from local or even regional differences. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to analyse, for the first time, whether there exists a significant dispersion in the number of child births normalised by the number of fertile women among Swedish municipalities for the period 1974-2002 and then provide an explanation for occurred differences. Regional differences, as well as the presence of spatial dependence, are first confirmed in an exploratory spatial data analysis. Particularly noticeable is the volatility and how local hotspots emerge and disappear during the study period. Subsequent regression analyses are performed for a selected number of years where we solve for spatial dependence and use economic-, institutional-, sociological-, and geographical characteristics of the municipalities as explanatory variables.

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  • Krister Sandberg & Thomas Westerberg, 2005. "Spatial Dependence and the Determinants of Child Births in Swedish Municipalities 1974-2002," ERSA conference papers ersa05p431, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p431

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    1. Harvey S. James Jr., 1996. "The Impact of Female Employment on the Likelihood and Timing of Second and Higher Order Pregnancies," Labor and Demography 9612002, EconWPA.
    2. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
    3. Cigno, Alessandro & Ermisch, John, 1989. "A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 737-760, April.
    4. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-328, June.
    5. James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Estimation of a Stochastic Model of Reproduction: An Econometric Approach," NBER Chapters,in: Household Production and Consumption, pages 99-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert Moffitt, 1984. "Profiles of Fertility, Labour Supply and Wages of Married Women: A Complete Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 263-278.
    7. Naz, G., 2000. "Determinants of Fertility in Norway," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 1400, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jørgen T. Lauridsen, 2015. "Is there a fertility paradox in Denmark?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p50, European Regional Science Association.

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