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Once Bitten, Twice Shy: Experiences Of A Banking Crisis And Expectations Of Future Crises

  • Shannon Mudd

    ()

  • Neven Valev

    ()

Survey data from Bulgaria show that people who had experienced a loss during a banking crisis are significantly more likely to expect a new crisis. This result holds despite 12 years between the earlier crisis and the survey, and the dramatically improved performance of the financial sector and the economy in the meantime. However, we find that earlier experiences affect expectations only for less informed individuals. Individuals who are more informed about the economy are unaffected by their prior experiences.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp969.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp969.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-969
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  1. John Haltiwanger & Michael Waldman, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," UCLA Economics Working Papers 303, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  3. Michael Berlemann & Kalin Hristov & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2002. "Lending of Last Resort, Moral Hazard and Twin Crises: Lessons from the Bulgarian Financial Crisis 1996/1997," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 464, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development," CRSP working papers 511, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2000. "The Transition Crisis in Bulgaria," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 581-602, September.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  7. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  8. Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May.
  9. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521474009 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  12. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
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