IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5867.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the long-term impacts of rural roads : a dynamic panel approach

Author

Listed:
  • Khandker, Shahidur R.
  • Koolwal, Gayatri B.

Abstract

Infrastructure investments are typically long-term. As a result, observed benefits to households and communities may vary considerably over time as short-term outcomes generate or are subsumed by longer-term impacts. This paper uses a new round of household survey as part of a local government engineering department's rural road improvement project financed by the World Bank in Bangladesh to compare the short-term and long-term effects of rural roads over eight years. A dynamic panel model, estimated by generalized method of moments, is applied to estimate the varying returns to public road investment accounting for time-varying unobserved characteristics. The results show that the substantial effects of roads on such outcomes as per capita expenditure, schooling, and prices as observed in the short run attenuate over time. But the declining returns are not common for all outcomes of interest or all households. Employment in the rural non-farm sector, for example, has risen more rapidly over time, indicating increasing returns to investment. The very poor have failed to sustain the short-term benefits of roads, and yet the gains accrued to the middle-income groups are strengthened over time because of changing sectors of employment, away from agriculture toward non-farm activity. The results also show that initial state dependence -- or initial community and household characteristics as well as road quality -- matters in estimating the trajectory of road impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Khandker, Shahidur R. & Koolwal, Gayatri B., 2011. "Estimating the long-term impacts of rural roads : a dynamic panel approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5867, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5867
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/10/31/000158349_20111031155734/Rendered/PDF/WPS5867.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ren Mu & Dominique van de Walle, 2011. "Rural Roads and Local Market Development in Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 709-734.
    2. Shenggen Fan & Peter Hazell & Sukhadeo Thorat, 2000. "Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1038-1051.
    3. Binswanger, Hans P. & Khandker, Shahidur R. & Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1993. "How infrastructure and financial institutions affect agricultural output and investment in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 337-366, August.
    4. Narayana, N. S. S. & Parikh, Kirit S. & Srinivasan, T. N., 1988. "Rural works programs in India: Costs and benefits," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 131-156, September.
    5. Shahidur R. Khandker & Zaid Bakht & Gayatri B. Koolwal, 2009. "The Poverty Impact of Rural Roads: Evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(4), pages 685-722, July.
    6. Jacoby, Hanan G. & Minten, Bart, 2009. "On measuring the benefits of lower transport costs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 28-38, May.
    7. Michael Lokshin & Ruslan Yemtsov, 2005. "Has Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation in Georgia Helped the Poor?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 311-333.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adukia, Anjali & Asher, Samuel & Novosad, Paul, 2017. "Educational Investment Responses to Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Indian Road Construction," MPRA Paper 80194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fujita, Yasuo, 2017. "Does a Rural Road Improvement Project Contribute to Inclusive Growth??A Case Study from Bangladesh," Working Papers 138, JICA Research Institute.
    3. Martin Wiegand & Eric Koomen & Menno (M.) Pradhan & Christopher Edmonds, 2017. "The Impact of Road Development on Household Welfare in Rural Papua New Guinea," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-076/V, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport Economics Policy&Planning; Housing&Human Habitats; Economic Theory&Research; Rural Poverty Reduction; Rural Roads&Transport;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5867. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.