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Forecasting investment needs in South Africa's electricity and telecommunications sectors

  • Bogetic, Zeljko
  • Fedderke, Johannes W.

The authors use a panel-data set for the period 1980-2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecommunications services and project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecommunications for the current growth scenario (3.6 percent a year) are of the order of 0.2 percent and 0.75 percent of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6 percent a year) implies approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3829.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3829
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  1. Marianne Fay & Danny Leipziger & Quentin Wodon & Tito Yepes, 2003. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : The role of infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3163, The World Bank.
  2. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 1999. "How inadequate provision of public infrastructure and services affects private investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2262, The World Bank.
  4. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 2002. "Coping with poor public capital," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 51-69, October.
  5. Antonio Estache, 1994. "World Development Report: Infrastructure for Development," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44144, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  7. Randolph, Susan & Bogetic, Zeljko & Hefley, Dennis, 1996. "Determinants of public expenditure on infrastructure : transportation and communication," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1661, The World Bank.
  8. Zeljko Bogetic & Johannes Fedderke, 2005. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Benchmarking, Productivity and Investment Needs, paper presented at Economic Society of South Africa (ESSA) Conference, Durban, 9/7-9/2005," Public Economics 0510006, EconWPA.
  9. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  10. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
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