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Forecasting investment needs in South Africa's electricity and telecommunications sectors

Author

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  • Bogetic, Zeljko
  • Fedderke, Johannes W.

Abstract

The authors use a panel-data set for the period 1980-2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecommunications services and project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecommunications for the current growth scenario (3.6 percent a year) are of the order of 0.2 percent and 0.75 percent of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6 percent a year) implies approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogetic, Zeljko & Fedderke, Johannes W., 2006. "Forecasting investment needs in South Africa's electricity and telecommunications sectors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3829, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonio Estache, 1994. "World Development Report: Infrastructure for Development," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44144, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    4. Marianne Fay & Danny Leipziger & Quentin Wodon & Tito Yepes, 2003. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : The role of infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3163, The World Bank.
    5. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 2002. "Coping with poor public capital," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 51-69, October.
    6. Randolph, Susan*Bogetic, Zeljko*Hefley, Dennis, 1996. "Determinants of public expenditure on infrastructure : transportation and communication," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1661, The World Bank.
    7. Zeljko Bogetic & Johannes Fedderke, 2005. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Benchmarking, Productivity and Investment Needs, paper presented at Economic Society of South Africa (ESSA) Conference, Durban, 9/7-9/2005," Public Economics 0510006, EconWPA.
    8. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 1999. "How inadequate provision of public infrastructure and services affects private investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2262, The World Bank.
    9. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    10. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogetic, Zeljko & Fedderke, Johannes W., 2006. "International benchmarking of South Africa's infrastructure performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3830, The World Bank.
    2. Bogetic, Zeljko & Fedderke, Johannes W., 2006. "International benchmarking of infrastructure performance in the Southern African Customs Union Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3987, The World Bank.
    3. repec:eee:wdevel:v:97:y:2017:i:c:p:14-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton & George Novela & David Torres & Adam G. Walke, 2015. "Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 738-745.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate; Banks&Banking Reform; Achieving Shared Growth; ICT Policy and Strategies;

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