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Forecasting Investment Needs In South Africa'S Electricity And Telecom Sectors

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  • żeljko Bogetić
  • Johannes w. Fedderke

Abstract

The paper uses 52-country panel-data for the period 1980-2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecom services and, based on these estimates, project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecom for the current growth scenario (3.6% per annum) are of the order of 0.2% and 0.75% of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6% per annum) implies an approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors. Copyright (c) 2006 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2006 Economic Society of South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • żeljko Bogetić & Johannes w. Fedderke, 2006. "Forecasting Investment Needs In South Africa'S Electricity And Telecom Sectors," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 557-574, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:557-574
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeljko Bogetic & Johannes Fedderke, 2005. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Benchmarking, Productivity and Investment Needs, paper presented at Economic Society of South Africa (ESSA) Conference, Durban, 9/7-9/2005," Public Economics 0510006, EconWPA.
    2. Fay, Marianne & Yepes, Tito, 2003. "Investing in infrastructure : what is needed from 2000 to 2010?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3102, The World Bank.
    3. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    4. Marianne Fay & Danny Leipziger & Quentin Wodon & Tito Yepes, 2003. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : The role of infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3163, The World Bank.
    5. Randolph, Susan*Bogetic, Zeljko*Hefley, Dennis, 1996. "Determinants of public expenditure on infrastructure : transportation and communication," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1661, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tania Ajam & Aron Janine, 2007. "Fiscal Renaissance in a Democratic South Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 745-781, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H - Public Economics
    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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