IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2545.html

Financing the future : infrastructure needs in Latin America, 2000-05

Author

Listed:
  • Fay, Marianne

Abstract

To assess five-year demand for infrastructure investment in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the private sector's role in meeting this demand, the author developed a model to predict future demand for infrastructure - defined as what consumers and producers would ask for, given their income and level of economic activity. Overall projections over the next five years: a) A doubling of telephone mainlines per capita. b) A steady increase in electricity generating capacity. c) Small increases in water and sanitation coverage. d) Steady expansion of road infrastructure, with rail transport becoming less important. Investments of $57 billion annually for 2000-05 (roughly 2.6 percent of Latin America's GDP) are expected to be absorbed largely by electricity ($22 billion), roads ($18 billion), and telecommunications ($ 6 billion). A surge in private finance of infrastructure in recent years (roughly $35 billion in 1998, excluding divestiture payments) has disproportionately favored telecommunications ($14 billion) and transport ($12 billion). Private investment exceeds predicted need for telecommunications (although the model did not include costs associated with the emergence of cellular phones), covers about half the demand for roads, and meets just a fraction of needs in power and water and sanitation - where there will be a shortfall in investments. Projections are likely to be on the low side because they cover new investments, not rehabilitation or maintenance.

Suggested Citation

  • Fay, Marianne, 2001. "Financing the future : infrastructure needs in Latin America, 2000-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2545, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2001/03/20/000094946_01030205434798/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruiz Nunez,Fernanda & Wei,Zichao, 2015. "Infrastructure investment demands in emerging markets and developing economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7414, The World Bank.
    2. Francesca Castellani & Marcelo Olarreaga & Ugo Panizza & Yue Zhou, 2018. "Investment Gaps in IDB Borrowing Countries," IHEID Working Papers 03-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Candice Branchoux & Lin Fang & Yusuke Tateno, 2018. "Estimating Infrastructure Financing Needs in the Asia-Pacific Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries, and Small Island Developing States," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Fuss, Sabine & Chen, Claudine & Jakob, Michael & Marxen, Annika & Rao, Narasimha D. & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2016. "Could resource rents finance universal access to infrastructure? A first exploration of needs and rents," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 691-712, December.
    5. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    6. Federica Liberini, 2006. "Economic Growth and Infrastructure Gap in Latin America," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 145-186, November-.
    7. Kalu Ojah & Stella Muhanji & Odongo Kodongo, 2022. "Infrastructure threshold and economic growth in Africa: do income level and geography matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1587-1627, August.
    8. repec:idb:brikps:358 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. żeljko Bogetić & Johannes W. Fedderke, 2006. "Forecasting Investment Needs In South Africa'S Electricity And Telecom Sectors," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 557-574, September.
    10. Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay, 2012. "Estimating demand for infrastructure, 2010–2020," Chapters, in: Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Masahiro Kawai & Rajat M. Nag (ed.), Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 2, pages 19-79, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Urrunaga, Roberto & Aparicio, Carlos, 2012. "Infrastructure and economic growth in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    2. Ghate Chetan, 2003. "The Politics of Endogenous Growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & McNab, Robert M., 2003. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1597-1616, September.
    4. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    5. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham, 1996. "Public Capital and Private Production in Australia," MPRA Paper 52110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:cuf:journl:y:2014:v:15:i:2:calderon:serven is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Afonso, Oscar, 2012. "The impact of public goods and services and public R&D on the non-observed economy size, wages inequality and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1996-2004.
    8. Lars Kunze, 2009. "Capital Taxation, Long-run Growth, and Bequests," Ruhr Economic Papers 0113, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. van Tuijl, Martin A. & de Groof, Robert J. & Kolnaar, Ad H. J., 1997. "Fiscal policy and public capital in interdependent economics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 279-300, April.
    10. Carmela Martin & Francisco J. Velazquez & Bernard Funck, 2001. "European Integration and Income Convergence : Lessons for Central and Eastern European Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13968, April.
    11. Issler, João Victor & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 1998. "Time-Series Properties and Empirical Evidence of Growth and Infrastructure," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 18(1), May.
    12. Tarhan, Simge, 2008. "Public Investment and Corruption in an Endogenous Growth Model," MPRA Paper 21319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2010.
    13. John S. Hill & Myung-Su Chae & Jinseo Park, 2012. "The Effects of Geography and Infrastructure on Economic Development and International Business Involvement," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 4(2), pages 91-113, December.
    14. Idrissa Yaya Diandy & Alioune Badara Seck, 2021. "Infrastructures physiques et croissance économique en Afrique de l'Ouest: Le rôle des institutions," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 154-165, March.
    15. Rivera, Berta & Currais, Luis, 2004. "Public Health Capital and Productivity in the Spanish Regions: A Dynamic Panel Data Model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 871-885, May.
    16. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    17. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    18. Gokcen Yilmaz, 2018. "Composition of public investment and economic growth: evidence from Turkish provinces, 1975-2001," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 187-214.
    19. Jimenez, Emmanuel & DEC, 1994. "Human and physical infrastructure : public investment and pricing policies in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1281, The World Bank.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:8:y:2007:i:3:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2017. "Three small essays on public investment: economic rationales, the EU fiscal framework and some statistical comparisons," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/17, pages 32-47.
    22. Gebregziabher, Fiseha & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2014. "Social spending and aggregate welfare in developing and transition economies," WIDER Working Paper Series 082, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.