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Convergence, dynamics, and geography of economic growth : The case of municipalities in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

  • Verner, Dorte
  • Tebaldi, Edinaldo

Analyses of municipal GDP growth in Rio Grande do Norte in the Northeast of Brazil during 1970-96 reveal that the cross-section dispersion of per capita income increased over time. Although the analysis indicates some spatial dependence in income, it is small and has a downward trend, indicating that the growth path is only weakly determined by geographical links in Rio Grande do Norte. Moreover, dynamic analyses based on the Markov chain transition matrix show that the probability of a municipality moving from a poor income class to a rich class is very small and vice-versa. Municipalities located in the middle-income class have high mobility, but there is no strong evidence indicating direction. Public policy should include assisting the rural families by providing them education and training that increases their opportunities for employment. There should also be policies to assist poor and unskilled migrants to integrate fully into the modern economy in the urban areas through skill development training and education.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3302.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3302
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  1. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
  3. S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Michael Kremer & Alexei Onatski & James Stock, 2001. "Searching for Prosperity," NBER Working Papers 8250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1856, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
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