IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1360.html

Are portfolio flows to emerging markets complementary or competitive?

Author

Listed:
  • Gooptu, Sudarshan

Abstract

Increasing portfolio investment flows to emerging markets in the past few years have led to fears of a sudden reversal of these flows and possible portfolio switching (from one emerging market to another) among foreign investors. To assess the sustainability of such portfolio flows, the author examines econometrically whether portfolio investment flows to one region in the developing world are significantly related to those going to another region. This question has important policy implications for policymakers in developing countries who, in considering domestic policy reforms to attract foreign portfolio investment, want to ascertain whether financial flows from abroad are coming from an increasing pool of investible resources in the industrial world or whether they represent the same funds chasing different high-yield securities as emerging markets change. In other words, does a sort of"adding-up"constraint apply to these flows - do they function as substitutes or not? Or could these flows be complementary? The author analyzes new quarterly World Bank data on gross portfolio investment flows for eight emerging markets (India, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) for the period from the first quarter of 1989 to the second quarter of 1993. Results indicate an inverse relationship between total portfolio flows to emerging Asian stock markets and those to Latin America. This negative relationship holds for both debt portfolio flows and equity portfolio flows. There has been a surge of portfolio flows to developing countries in the 1990s, but developing countries must compete for those flows. In the long term, portfolio flows to well-performing countries will be sustained because of improved creditworthiness and proportionately greater investor interest. Increasing the pace of reform in an emerging stock market is essential for sustaining portfolio flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1994. "Are portfolio flows to emerging markets complementary or competitive?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1360, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1994/09/01/000009265_3970716141744/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn, 1993. "Equity portfolio investment in developing countries : a literature survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1089, The World Bank.
    2. Claessens, S. & Gooptu, S., 1993. "Portfolio Investment in Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 228, World Bank.
    3. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Meric, Ilhan & Meric, Gulser, 1989. "Potential gains from international portfolio diversification and inter-temporal stability and seasonality in international stock market relationships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 627-640, September.
    6. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1979. "The Relationship between Equity Indices on World Exchanges," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 103-114, March.
    7. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    8. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Grubel, Herbert G & Fadner, Kenneth, 1971. "The Interdependence of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 89-94, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goopu, Sudarshan, 1996. "The analysis of emerging policy issues in development finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1589, The World Bank.
    2. Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1996. "Emerging policy issues in development finance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 85-100.
    3. Atrayee Ghoshroy-Saha & Hendrik Vann De Berg, 1996. "Mexico's futile attempt to defy purchasing power parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 395-399.
    4. Louis Kasekende & Damoni Kitabire & Matthew Martin, 1996. "Capital Inflows and Macroeconomic Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_158, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. James Dean, 1996. "Recent capital flows to Asia Pacific countries: Trade‐offs and dilemmas," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 287-317.
    6. Louis Kasekende & Damoni Kitabire & Matthew Martin, 1998. "Capital Inflows and Macroeconomic Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Macroeconomics 9809005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Akira Kohsaka, 1996. "Interdependence through Capital Flows in Pacific Asia and the Role of Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 107-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
    9. Kinda, Tidiane, 2008. "Les déterminants des flux de capitaux privés dans l’UMOA: Une approche empirique sur données de panel [The determinants of private capital inflows in WAEMU: A panel data approach]," MPRA Paper 19159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tidiane Kinda, 2007. "Increasing Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries : The Role of Physical and Financial Infrastructure," Post-Print hal-00171934, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, M. Kabir & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1996. "Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 387-405.
    2. Yochanan Shachmurove, 2001. "Dynamic Co-movements of Stock Indices: The Emerging Middle Eastern and the United States Markets," Penn CARESS Working Papers ddffc4204cf90a8523fb64134, Penn Economics Department.
    3. Yochanan Shachmurove, "undated". "Dynamic Daily Returns Among Latin Americans and Other Major World Stock Markets," Penn CARESS Working Papers e5ba8f857b7ab5742bd6c3467, Penn Economics Department.
    4. Ø. Gjerde & F. Sættem, 1995. "Linkages among European and world stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 165-179.
    5. Sangita Choudhary & Shelly Singhal, 0. "International linkages of Indian equity market: evidence from panel co-integration approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-9.
    6. Dimitris Balios & Manolis Xanthakis, 2003. "International interdependence and dynamic linkages between developed stock markets," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 1(1), pages 105-130.
    7. Rita D'Ecclesia & Mauro Costantini, 2006. "Comovements and correlations in international stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 567-582.
    8. Smith, Kenneth L., 2001. "Pre- and post-1987 crash frequency domain analysis among Pacific Rim equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 69-87, February.
    9. Eduard Baumöhl & Mária Farkašovská & Tomáš Výrost, 2010. "Integrácia akciových trhov: DCC MV-GARCH model [Stock Market Integration: DCC MV-GARCH Model]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 488-503.
    10. Bhattacharjee, Kaushik & Bang, Nupur Pavan & Mamidanna, Sravya, 2014. "Transmission of pricing information between level III ADRs and their underlying domestic stocks: Empirical evidence from India," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 43-59.
    11. Sangita Choudhary & Shelly Singhal, 2020. "International linkages of Indian equity market: evidence from panel co-integration approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 333-341, July.
    12. Rui Menezes, 2013. "Globalization and Granger Causality in International Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 3(1), pages 413-413.
    13. Aristeidis G. Samitas, 2004. "Interrelationships of Secondary Equity Markets at Domestic and International Level," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 87-98.
    14. Wahab, Mahmoud, 2012. "Asymmetric effects of U.S. stock returns on European equities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 156-172.
    15. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Ivaschenko, Iryna, 2003. "Asian Flu or Wall Street virus? Tech and non-tech spillovers in the United States and Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 303-322, December.
    16. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Investigating International Portfolio Diversification Opportunities for the Asian Islamic Stock Market Investors," MPRA Paper 90281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sang Bin Lee & Kwang Jung Kim, 1993. "Does The October 1987 Crash Strengthen The Co‐Movements Among National Stock Markets?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 89-102, September.
    18. Theodossiou, Panayiotis & Koutmos, Gregory, 1994. "Linkages between the U.S. and Japanese stock markets: A bivariate garch-m analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 277-287.
    19. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Park, Jinwoo, 2001. "Information flows between non-deliverable forward (NDF) and spot markets: Evidence from Korean currency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 363-377, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.