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Causal Inference under Algorithmic Interference: Identification and Estimation without SUTVA in Platform Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Ryłow

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) fails systematically in platform economies where a deterministic algorithm mediates all interactions, making interference structural and mechanistically knowable. We introduce algorithmic interference — a structural potential-outcomes model in which spillovers flow through the platform's known decision rule — and construct the Debiased Algorithmic Instrumental Variable (DAIV) estimator: a cross-fitted semiparametric procedure combining Double Machine Learning with the IV equation implied by the algorithmic mechanism. Under local algorithmic monotonicity (LAM), both the ATE and CATE are point identified; without LAM the sharp identified set is characterised. DAIV is sqrt(n)-consistent, asymptotically normal, and semiparametrically efficient, with a formal LAM test supplied. A synthetic ride-sharing example (n = 10,000) shows that standard DML overstates the treatment effect by 52% relative to DAIV; a Hausman-type specification test strongly rejects no algorithmic interference.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Ryłow, 2026. "Causal Inference under Algorithmic Interference: Identification and Estimation without SUTVA in Platform Economies," Working Papers 2026-7, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-7
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/7130/0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software

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