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A new model for estimating the probability of information spreading with opinion leaders


  • Andrea Ellero

    () (Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia)

  • Annamaria Sorato

    () (Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia)

  • Giovanni Fasano

    () (Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia)


In this paper we analyze some issues related to the general problem of information spreading among individuals, where suitable assumptions on the information exchange are considered. In particular, starting from the scheme proposed in [5], which is based on a majority rule to treat the individualsÕ interaction, we define and introduce special individuals who play a key role in the information spreading. The latter will be addressed as opinion leaders, and have the special feature of strongly interfering with the process based on the majority rule. We consider a new model, where opinion leaders are introduced as special agents, and study its specific properties which significantly recast some conclusions worth for the model in [5]. Finally, we provide some results cocerning the dynamics of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Ellero & Annamaria Sorato & Giovanni Fasano, 2011. "A new model for estimating the probability of information spreading with opinion leaders," Working Papers 13, Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
  • Handle: RePEc:vnm:wpdman:13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Tal Garber & Jacob Goldenberg & Barak Libai & Eitan Muller, 2004. "From Density to Destiny: Using Spatial Dimension of Sales Data for Early Prediction of New Product Success," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 419-428, August.
    2. Ellero, Andrea & Fasano, Giovanni & Sorato, Annamaria, 2009. "A modified Galam’s model for word-of-mouth information exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(18), pages 3901-3910.
    3. Galam, Serge, 2003. "Modelling rumors: the no plane Pentagon French hoax case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 571-580.
    4. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-493, May.
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    More about this item


    Information spreading; GalamÕs model; Opinion leaders;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General


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