IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uwa/wpaper/05-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Killing the Goose that Lays the Golden Egg: a Time-Series Analysis of Institutional Change and Economic Growth in Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)

  • Sam Hak Kan Tang

    (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines how the rule of law and democratic accountability have affected Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate in the past 20 years. We find that democratic accountability has deteriorated substantially since the changeover of sovereignty in 1997, while the rule of law has remained strong and stable. Empirical results from ARDL bounds tests show a strong positive long-run relationship between growth and democratic accountability, and Granger causality tests reveal that democratic accountability causes the growth rate of GDP in the short run. These conclusions are robust to controlling for the effects of investment and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Our results suggest that the deterioration in democratic accountability following the handover in 1997 has come at the expense of a considerable decline in economic growth, and controverts popular arguments in Hong Kong that improving democratic accountability will harm economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2005. "Killing the Goose that Lays the Golden Egg: a Time-Series Analysis of Institutional Change and Economic Growth in Hong Kong," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:05-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ecompapers.biz.uwa.edu.au/paper/PDF%20of%20Discussion%20Papers/2005/05_06_Groenewold.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    2. Helliwell, John F., 1994. "Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 225-248, April.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1996. "Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Institutions for High-Quality Growth: What They Are and How to Acquire Them," Chapters, in: Kartik Roy & Jörn Sideras (ed.), Institutions, Globalisation and Empowerment, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Atkins, Frank J. & Coe, Patrick J., 2002. "An ARDL bounds test of the long-run Fisher effect in the United States and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 255-266, June.
    8. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    12. Silvio Borner & Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1995. "Political Credibility and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-24049-4, December.
    13. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2007. "Killing The Goose That Lays The Golden Egg: Institutional Change And Economic Growth In Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 787-799, October.
    2. Bhattacharyya, Sambit, 2009. "Unbundled institutions, human capital and growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 106-120, March.
    3. Kangoye, Thierry, 2011. "Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?," WIDER Working Paper Series 064, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Tang, Sam Hak Kan & Yung, Linda Chor Wing, 2008. "Does rapid economic growth enhance democratization? Time-series evidence from high performing Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 244-253, June.
    5. Thierry Kangoye, 2011. "Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-064, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Cingolani, Luciana & Crombrugghe, Denis de, 2012. "Techniques for dealing with reverse causality between institutions and economic performance," MERIT Working Papers 2012-034, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2011. "Growth Miracles and Growth Debacles," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13609.
    8. Eris, Mehmet, 2010. "Population heterogeneity and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1211-1222, September.
    9. Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2020. "Can unconditional cash transfers improve adolescent and young adult education outcomes?," Working Papers 207, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    10. Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2013. "The effect of institutions on economic growth: A global analysis based on GMM dynamic panel estimation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-33.
    11. Linda Chor Wing Yung & Sam Hak-Kan Tang, 2005. "Does Rapid Economic Growth Accelerate Democratization? Time-Series Evidence from High Performing Asian Economies," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2016. "A time to throw stones, a time to reap: How long does it take for democratic transitions to improve institutional outcomes?," Working Papers CEB 16-016, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Andreas Assiotis & Kevin Sylwester, 2013. "Do the effects of corruption upon growth differ between democracies and autocracies?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 06-2013, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    14. Richard Bluhm & Adam Szirmai, 2011. "Institutions, Inequality and Growth: A review of theory and evidence on the institutional determinants of growth and inequality," Papers inwopa634, Innocenti Working Papers.
    15. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    17. Knack, Stephen, 2002. "Governance and growth: measurement and evidence," MPRA Paper 28050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2013. "Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 337-351.
    19. Nawaz, Saima, 2015. "Growth effects of institutions: A disaggregated analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 118-126.
    20. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & …mer Faruk Baykal & Marie-Ange Véganzonès–Varoudakis, 2011. "The Effects of Convergence in Governance on Capital Accumulation in the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Countries," Chapters, in: Mehmet Ugur & David Sunderland (ed.), Does Economic Governance Matter?, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutions; growth; democratic accountability; rule of law; Hong Kong;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:05-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sam Tang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuwaau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.