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Killing the Goose that Lays the Golden Egg: a Time-Series Analysis of Institutional Change and Economic Growth in Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)

  • Sam Hak Kan Tang

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines how the rule of law and democratic accountability have affected Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate in the past 20 years. We find that democratic accountability has deteriorated substantially since the changeover of sovereignty in 1997, while the rule of law has remained strong and stable. Empirical results from ARDL bounds tests show a strong positive long-run relationship between growth and democratic accountability, and Granger causality tests reveal that democratic accountability causes the growth rate of GDP in the short run. These conclusions are robust to controlling for the effects of investment and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Our results suggest that the deterioration in democratic accountability following the handover in 1997 has come at the expense of a considerable decline in economic growth, and controverts popular arguments in Hong Kong that improving democratic accountability will harm economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2005. "Killing the Goose that Lays the Golden Egg: a Time-Series Analysis of Institutional Change and Economic Growth in Hong Kong," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:05-06
    as

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    File URL: https://ecompapers.biz.uwa.edu.au/paper/PDF%20of%20Discussion%20Papers/2005/05_06_Groenewold.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    2. Helliwell, John F., 1994. "Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 225-248, April.
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    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
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    8. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutions; growth; democratic accountability; rule of law; Hong Kong;

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other
    • P17 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Performance and Prospects

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