Output, Financial Markets and Growth
In this paper we reconsider a macrodynamic model of Blanchard, which integrates output and stock market dynamics in a fundamental way. We add budget equations (and their implications) to all sectors of the economy, and also capital accumulation and growth (but not yet proper wage-price dynamics) and obtain a model of the real-financial interaction with quite different steady state characteristics as compared to the Blanchard approach. We furthermore allow for somewhat sluggish adjustment of share prices and capital gain expectations in place of perfect substitutes and perfect foresight. This brings our approach closer to completion and also makes it much more involved. Instead of the originally only 2D dynamics we now obtain a 4D dynamical system with two real and two financial variables and specific stability properties. However, by setting certain secondary expressions equal to their trend values, we can regain the mathematical form of the original 2D dynamics of Blanchard type. This form is now based on variables that allow for stationarity, when estimated, that therefore permit to estimate the model to get information about the magnitude of its adjustment speeds, the size of which is crucial for the stability of instability of this dynamical system.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2000|
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- Chiarella Carl & Semmler Willi & Mittnik Stefan & Zhu Peiyuan, 2002. "Stock Market, Interest Rate and Output: A Model and Estimation for US Time Series Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-39, April.
- Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2003. "Real-Financial Interaction: Implications of Budget Equations and Capital Accumulation," Working Paper Series 127, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Peter Flaschel & Carl Chiarella & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2001. "Output and Interest Rates. Jump Variable and Phase Diagram Switching Methodologies," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 1B.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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