IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/wpaper/125.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Ways Out of th Jump-Variable Conundrum

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In this paper we reconsider a model of Blanchard and Fisher which reformulated Keynesian IS-LM analysis from the perspective of a richer array of financial assets, namely short-term and long-term bonds, and thus from the perspective of the term structure of interest rates. The basic change in this extension of the IS-LM approach is that investment demand (and also consumption demand) now depend on the long-term rate of interest in the palce of the short-term rate. This implies that the IS-curve and the LM-curve are no longer situated in the same diagram, but have to be linked via the dynamics of long-term bond prices (in the approach of Blanchard and Fischer based on perfect substitutes, perfect foresight and the jump variable technique), thereby creating one of the links for the real-financial interaction to be investigated, the dynamic multiplier process and thw conventional LM curve representing the other one. Based on this dynamic interaction of real and financial markets we will reflect the outcomes achieved by Blanchard and Fischer from the perspective of imperfect substitutes and mypoic perfect foresight. We derive on this basis alternatives to the conventional jump variable technique and its treatment of unanticipated and anticipated monetary and fiscal policy, which are global in nature and do not depend on well-behaved stable manifolds in an essentially local analysis of saddlepoint instability as in the case for the jump variable technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2003. "Output and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Ways Out of th Jump-Variable Conundrum," Working Paper Series 125, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp125.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    3. Chiarella, Carl, 1986. "Perfect foresight models and the dynamic instability problem from a higher viewpoint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 283-292, October.
    4. Benhabib, Jess & Miyao, Takahiro, 1981. "Some New Results on the Dynamics of the Generalized Tobin Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 589-596, October.
    5. repec:czx:journl:v:8:y:2001:i:13:id:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2004. "Real-Financial Interaction: A Reconsideration of the Blanchard Model with a State-of-Market Dependent Reaction Coefficient," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Economic Complexity, pages 31-65, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2002. "Stability Analysis of a High-Dimensional Macrodynamic Model of Real-Financial Interaction: A Cascade of Matrices Approach," Working Paper Series 123, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2003. "Real-Financial Interaction: Implications of Budget Equations and Capital Accumulation," Working Paper Series 127, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2003. "Real-Financial Interaction: Implications of Budget Equations and Capital Accumulation," Working Paper Series 127, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2004. "Real-Financial Interaction: A Reconsideration of the Blanchard Model with a State-of-Market Dependent Reaction Coefficient," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Economic Complexity, pages 31-65, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2003. "Real-Financial Interaction: Implications of Budget Equations and Capital Accumulation," Working Paper Series 127, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Flaschel, Peter & Sethi, Rajiv, 1999. "Stability in models of money and perfect foresight: implications of non-linearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 221-233, April.
    4. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, September.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2002. "Stability Analysis of a High-Dimensional Macrodynamic Model of Real-Financial Interaction: A Cascade of Matrices Approach," Working Paper Series 123, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2001. "Real-Financial Interaction: Integrating Supply Side Wage-Price Dynamics and the Stock Market," Working Paper Series 112, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. C. Chiarella & P. Khomin, 1999. "Adaptively evolving expectations in models of monetarydynamics‐ The fundamentalists forward looking," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 89(0), pages 21-34, January.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    9. F. Cavalli & A. Naimzada & N. Pecora, 2022. "A stylized macro-model with interacting real, monetary and stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 225-257, January.
    10. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2012. "Nonlinear dynamics in a Cournot duopoly with relative profit delegation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(12), pages 1469-1478.
    11. Simonovits, András, 1999. "A racionális és a naiv várakozások stabilitásának összehasonlítása [Commparison of the stability of rational and naive expectations]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 689-700.
    12. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2011. "Stability analysis in a Cournot duopoly with managerial sales delegation and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 33828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: III Basic Partial Feedback Structures and Stability Issues," Working Paper Series 95, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2008. "Rational expectations models: An approach using forward-backward stochastic differential equations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3-4), pages 251-276, February.
    15. Rodríguez-Arana, Alejandro, 2014. "Política fiscal, expectativas y transición dinámica en el modelo simple de crecimiento endógeno," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(18), pages 7-32, primer se.
    16. Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & Rosser, J.Barkley, 2003. "Adaptive and statistical expectations in a renewable resource market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 541-567.
    17. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Oldani, Chiara & Savona, Paolo, 2005. "Derivatives, Fiscal Policy and Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 36199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2009. "Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 930-953, October.
    20. Thomas Christiaans, 2001. "Economic Growth, the Mathematical Pendulum, and a Golden Rule of Thumb," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 94-01, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real-financial interaction; term structure of interest rates; jump variable technique; postulated stability; relaxation oscillations; phase diagram switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.